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RVAWX.com | Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia | Page 11
Observation, Winter Weather

February 19, 2012: Observations

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The first real substantial storm of the winter season struck on Sunday, prior to President’s Day. The precipitation started around 9:00 AM and remained light and intermittent until 5:00 PM.Moderate to heavy snow was reported at the airport from 6 PM to 12 PM that evening. A total of 3.9″ was reported at the airport. To date, this was the largest snow event of the season and largest event since the Christmas Day storm of 2010.

The forecast for this storm remained tricky up to the day of the event. Models shifted course the night before the event, drastically reduced snowfall forecasts from 3-6″ to 2-4″ for Richmond and the surrounding counties. A winter storm watch had been issued on Saturday for the a large portion of central Virginia. My Sunday morning, the watch was converted to an advisory with the likelihood that snow totals would not exceed 2″ of snow. Storm totals for Metro Richmond ranged from 1.5″ to 5″ of snow. A snow burst moved through Metro Richmond between 5:30 and 7:30 PM, which gave some areas up to 2″ of snow in two hours!

NWS Forecast from 2/18/2012.
NWS Snow Totals Map


My Report (Church Hill):

* Place – Time: Church Hill, 11:35 PM (2/19/2012) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 33-42, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 25-33, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: 95%
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Watch & Advisory
* Road Conditions: All roads had snow cover during the event. The morning after the event on President’s Day, secondary roads slushy. Major roads passable.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes heavy snow fell throughout the event. Rain, sleet and gropple fell during the event, especially towards the beginning.
* Total Precip: 4.0″ of snow. Liquid Equivalent of 0.83″ fell during the event at the airport.
* Comments: Precipitation started at 10:00 AM as a light mix of flurries and drizzle. The precipitation fell as light to occasionally moderate snow throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. Little to no accumulation through 5 PM. The precipitation quickly changed to moderate and heavy snow by 6 PM where local roads began to get covered. About 1 and ½ hours of heavy snow was reported in and around RIC airport around 6-7 PM. The snow began to taper off by 12 AM on Monday morning. Snow was very wet, with ratios close to 6:1. Precipitation was spurred by an upper level low that tracked up from the gulf coast to off the Hatteras coast. No winter storm warning was issued, only a winter weather advisory was issued for Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. On Saturday, the day before the event, highs were in the mid-60’s in Central Virginia. The airport reported 3.9” of snow.

Photo Gallery Link: http://www.612.richmondcitywatch.com/modules/gallery2/main.php?g2_itemId=2788

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

February 19, 2012: Forecast for Rain to Snow?

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Could Metro Richmond be in store for a President’s Day storm in 2012? The likelihood of a possible winter weather event for Central Virginia is gaining traction today. A lot of caution needs to be placed on the table as the models for this event have been all over the board this week. On Sunday and Monday, the lower Middle Atlantic seemed to be in the cross-hairs of a potential major storm for this weekend. By mid-week, the threat shifted north and east of Central Virginia to include DC through NYC. The models (for the time being) have reined in the idea of a coastal storm exiting Carolina coast and cruising up the eastern seaboard. Now, the storm stays suppressed and hammers the majority of the wintery precipitation through WVA, VA and parts of MD and DE. Still a lot of time for the models and overall model consensus on this storm to shift. In the meantime, Richmond has a slight chance of having our first major winter storm of the season.

Below are some current predictions based on the models this afternoon:

18Z GFS Snowfall Forecast
12Z Euro 3-Hr Snowfall Map, 2/16/2012

 

NWS Forecast

Updates for 2/17/2012:

The chances for accumulating snow Sunday afternoon, evening and early Monday are increasing. The NAM this morning buried Richmond with 8-11″ of snow. I’m still unsure if this will pan out, but it looks like we have something fun to watch! Also, the 12Z GFS today still shows 3-4″ of snow for Richmond. The trend looks to be our friend if you are a snow lover!

12Z NAM Snowfall Estimates
Observation, Winter Weather

February 10-11, 2012: Observations

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For such a short event, the snow squall that moved through on Saturday, February 11th will be remembered for its intensity, lightening and thunder. Several reports of thundersnow were observed around Metro Richmond and areas to the west as the snow squall moved through in the mid-afternoon hours. The snow and wind picked up quickly asd the arctic front pushed through the area around 3:30 PM. Approximately 0.06″ of liquid precipitation fell in about 25 minutes.  In that same time period, the temperature dropped 9 degrees from 44 to 35!
NWS Snowfall Storm Map
For Church Hill, this brought the first measurable snow of the 2011-2012 season. The amount of snow that collected on cars and grassy surfaces was about 0.2″ of an inch. Not much more than a trace, but still measurable on the elevated and grassy surfaces.
 
The shortwave that was anticipated to roll through central Virginia late in the evening of the 11th-12th materialized, but the bulk of the moisture stayed to the east of Metro Richmond. I observed a few flurries around 12:30-1:00 AM on Sunday morning.
 
My Storm Report:

* Place – Time: Church Hill, 3:35 PM (1/28/2011) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 35-44, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 32-34, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
* Road Conditions: Primary roads passable. Secondary roads passable as well.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes heavy snow fell throughout the event.
* Total Precip: 0.2″ of snow on mulch, grass and elevated surfaces. Liquid Equivalent of 0.06″ fell during the event.
* Comments: Precipitation started at 3:35 PM as a very brief mix of gropple and snow. The precipitation quickly changed to moderate and heavy snow with winds sustained between 10-20 MPH. Precipitation was spurred by an arctic frontal boundary that created a squall line through central Virginia. Thunder preceding the event could be heard to the south and was reported to the NWS during the event as it rolled through Metro Richmond. Snow lasted for about 30 minutes.

Photo Gallery Link: http://www.612.richmondcitywatch.com/modules/gallery2/main.php?g2_itemId=2786
 
Video of event will be forthcoming.
 
Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

February 10-11, 2012: Forecast for Showers to Light Snow?

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The next weather headline coming our way this weekend involves a frontal boundary that will usher in a brief bout of arctic air for Sunday into Monday for Metro Richmond. As the frontal passage comes through, there is a small chance of the rain changing to snow in Central Virginia. It looks unlikely that any accumulating snow will fall from this event. The NWS has us recieving some rain showers and nothing else from the frontal passage. Nonetheless, it is a possible snow event to watch evolve over the next two days. In any case, a windy and winter like day is in store for Sunday (2/12/12).

12Z GFS for 2/11/12NWS PM Forecast from 2/8/2012
NWS PM Forecast from 2/8/2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NWS Forecast, 2/11/12
Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

February 4-5, 2012: Forecast for Rain to Snow?

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February 3, 2012 12Z Nam SnowfallIs there a viable chance for snow this weekend? Some models seem to be hinting at a colder solution that would allow for this weekend’s storm to end as a period of light sleet and snow. The 12Z NAM grazes the area with 1-2 inches of snow on early Sunday. The 12Z GFS keeps Metro Richmond on the warm side with 850 MB temperatures. The forecast looks anything but certain at this point as the cut-off low from the mid-west drifts towards the mid-atlantic late tomorrow into Sunday.

 

 

Current Radar:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update (2/6/2012):

No snow or flurries appeared this weekend. The moisture raced out of Metro Richmond by 2-3 AM. Sunday remained mostly cloudy. The snow drought continues.

Historical Weather Events, Snowstorm Profile, Winter Weather

Snowstorm Profile: December 18-19th Storm of 2009 (Peacock Day Storm)

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Snowstorm Profile

Name: December 18-19th Storm of 2009 (Peacock Day Storm)

Date: December 18-19, 2009

Precipitation Observed: 7.5” (Church Hill)

RIC Airport Total Snowfall Observation: 7.4”

Precipitation Type: Primarily Snow, followed by Sleet & Freezing Rain/Drizzle

 

Radar of the event from 12/19/2009, 1Z

The December 18-19th, 2009 snowstorm will mark the third winter storm to be profiled in a series of articles to be posted on our blog. We hope you find these weather event musings entertaining and factual. These articles will portray some of the most memorable snow events that Russ and I have lived through while residing in Richmond, Virginia.

 

Snowstorm Profiles:

 

Blizzard of 1996

March 1st Storm of 2009

 

Before the Storm: With the early March storm of 2009, expectations were running high for the start of the winter season of 2009-2010. By Thursday, December 17th, the NWS had issued a winter storm watch for Metro Richmond warning of a snow event that could drop 6 to 12 inches of snow. The anticipation of experiencing a major winter storm before the actual start of the astronomical winter season was rare. To put how rare December snowstorms are in Richmond, the NWS compiled a nice graphic ranking this storm to other December snowfalls:

 

 

Synoptic Overview of Storm System: A low pressure system developed over the Gulf Coast spawned a widespread snow event from north Georgia to the coastal sections of Maine. The first reference link below provides a much more detailed and analytical write-up of the system’s dynamics. 

 

 

Video of Event from Church Hill (My Home):

 

The Main Event: This event started just after sunset on Friday, December 18th, lasting until the early morning hours of December 19th in Metro Richmond. Russ & I were anticipating this event several days before the first flake fell from the sky.  I still have a fond memory of looking for the first flakes to fall while sitting at work. Just as it was time to leave work, snow began falling. The snow rate intensified at quick clip from 5 to 8 PM. Snow continued to fall at a high rate with little in the way of wind being observed through most of the evening hours. Prior to 11 PM on the 18th, the most intense part of the storm hit. The wind picked up slightly and the snowfall rate accelerated to over an inch an hour. Near midnight, Russ and I found measurements of snow in a nearby field on M Street between 8-9”. Shortly thereafter, the precipitation began to slowly wind down and changed from snow to sleet, freezing rain and even drizzle for the remainder of the night. By 6 AM on the 19th, the temperature rose to 33.6 degrees.

 

Snow intermittently fell the next day as the storm cranked up the coast towards New England. Between 4-6 PM on the 19th, we had a small batch of snow showers move in, giving us a light dusting of snow. 

 

Again, Russ took some excellent video footage of the event that showed the intensity of the snowfall.

 

My official measurement coincided with the official measurement at the airport. Had the snow not changed over to sleet, freezing rain and drizzle, there is no doubt that we could have seen 8-10” from this storm in Church Hill. Areas to the north and west of town saw substantially more snow than Downtown Richmond.

 

Video of Event, Part 2 (in Church Hill):

 

Other Resources/Links:

 

1)      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/wx_events/winter/20091218/2009Dec18_19_Winter_Storm.pdf

http://www.612.richmondcitywatch.com/modules/gallery2/main.php?g2_itemId=917(Link to my personal photo gallery)

Historical Weather Events, Observation, Statistics/Records, Winter Weather

Richmond Winter Snow Records

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I got an interesting email from Larry at the NWS Wakefield office about Richmond historical winter snow totals. See the email below:

“We have recorded at trace of snow thus far this season at Richmond (the only season that finished with just a trace is 1918-19). The 2nd lowest amount in a season was 0.5” in 1944-45. For “seasonal snowfall” the entire season is considered so we will need to have no measurable snow for Feb, Mar, Apr this year to tie the 1918-19 season. Recently in 2006-07, we had just 0.3″ by the end of March…appeared to be set to have the 2nd lowest snowfall season on record…until Easter Sunday in April recorded 1.0″ making the seasonal total 1.3″…9th lowest.”

Very interesting.

See the list below

Richmond Top 10 Snow List (downloads a pdf)

 

Via NWS Wakefield

 

 

 

News, Observation, Winter Weather

January 2012 Temp Stats

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What a bizarre January that was. No accumulating snow, sleet, ice or even grauple! 2.01″ of rain. 21 days with a high temp of 50* or greater. 10 days with a low above freezing (32*). A mean temp of 42.3*. Wow! The “Anti-Winter”. This may go on record, if February continues the trend, as one of Richmond’s warmest, least snowy ever. What a bummer for snow junkies…

As Jim Duncan tweeted recently, I’m ready to throw in the towel on this winter…

Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia