The next weather headline coming our way this weekend involves a frontal boundary that will usher in a brief bout of arctic air for Sunday into Monday for Metro Richmond. As the frontal passage comes through, there is a small chance of the rain changing to snow in Central Virginia. It looks unlikely that any accumulating snow will fall from this event. The NWS has us recieving some rain showers and nothing else from the frontal passage. Nonetheless, it is a possible snow event to watch evolve over the next two days. In any case, a windy and winter like day is in store for Sunday (2/12/12).
NBC12 Forecast:
“An area of low pressure tracks up the coast and moves offshore tomorrow night/Saturday morning. A cold arctic air mass will move in behind a strong cold front on Saturday. This means we’ll likely have rain showers tomorrow night through Saturday morning that could change over to some snow flurries or a few snow showers Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures could drop through the afternoon as the cold air rushes in. Expect a cold and windy Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The amount (if any) of snow we could potentially see will depend on the timing of the arrival of cold air. We’ll have better details during our evening newscasts today on NBC12.”
From the NWS:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA…INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA…CENTRAL VIRGINIA…EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA…INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA…SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA…SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA…THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY…BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING MAY BRING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO MAINLY
GRASSY SURFACES. IN ADDITION…WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 30 TO 45
MPH SATURDAY EVENING…AND 25 TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY…PRODUCING WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Wakefield’s discussion of tomorrow’s event:
SAT…EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS GENLY REMAINED SIMILAR OVER THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS…STILL TOO PROGRESSIVE FOR PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW. THE SFC LOW AND
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD ALREADY BE EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
SAT…ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY -RA/DZ AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED…LOOKS LIKE A LULL FOR MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY-MID AFTN AHEAD OF TH APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 20%. STILL A LOT OF MSTR FOR MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE SRN 1/2.
TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPR 40S N…LWR 50S FAR S. WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES…NAM/GFS AND ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER…SHOW
STRONG DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. DEEPEST
FORCING LOOKS ALIGNED FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ESE THROUGH THE VA ERN
SHORE DURING THIS PERIOD…AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN
MUCH OF EN VA N OF I-64. COLD AIR ARRIVAL IS ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER
THAN PREV MODELS…SO SNOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z IN
THE FAR NW AND DORCHESTER MD…AND AFTER ABOUT 23Z/6 PM FROM
METRO RICHMOND ON SE…AND AFTER 7 OR 8 PM VA BEACH TO COASTAL NC.
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CASE WHERE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL FIGHT W/ DRY
LOW LEVELS. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF W/ FORCING AND QPF AFTER 00Z (THAT WOULD MAINLY
BE SNOW). HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA…BUT WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW TO CLIMO FAVORED NRN
NECK AND VA ERN SHORE…MAINLY FROM 23Z- 03Z/SUN. W/ STRONG
LIFT…COULD SEE A QUICK 1″ OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS..BUT SFC TEMPS
WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM SO ROADS WILL SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO W/ 30-50% CHC SNOW SHOWERS…MAINLY IN THE EARLY
EVENING (AS THICKNESSES DROP…SNOW WILL BE MAIN PTYPE ALL THE WAY
TO THE NC COAST). WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN
HWO FOR NOW FOR ALL ZONES. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
BY LATER SHIFTS…IF THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS VERIFIES…SNOW
AMOUNTS AND CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED…ALTHOUGH EVEN A
WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD ONLY BE LOCALLY 1-2″ (AN ADVISORY).
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
VAZ062>064-070>074-082-083-112115-
CAROLINE VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-ESSEX VA-GOOCHLAND
VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-NEW KENT
VA-
333 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2012
…MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSNOW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA…
AT 329 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSNOW
SHOWERS FROM GUINEA TO BON AIR…MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR…
MEADOWBROOK AROUND 335 PM EST…
GUINEA AROUND 340 PM EST…
WOODFORD AROUND 345 PM EST…
VILLBORO AROUND 350 PM EST…
RICHMOND HEIGHTS AROUND 355 PM EST…
MONTROSE AROUND 400 PM EST…
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND A BURST OF WET SNOW IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING…SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND QUICKLY MELT ONCE THE STORM ENDS
AND THE SUN COMES OUT.
LAT…LON 3817 7717 3817 7714 3743 7719 3741 7765
3802 7761 3819 7743 3820 7725 3819 7724
3820 7723 3820 7721