Tag Archives: southern slider

February 26, 2015: Snow from Southern Slider?

February 24, 2015 Ryan_R

A moderate intensity storm system will be brushing central Virginia late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A system rounding the corner of a fresh arctic plunge on the east coast will skirt from the Gulf Coast across the Carolinas and bring a snow event that ranges from 1-4 inches in central Virginia to almost a foot in Hampton Roads. Current forecast and trends are posted below.

Update on 2/25/15:

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082-083-085-251730-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FARMVILLE…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…
RICHMOND
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING
METRO RICHMOND.

* HAZARDS: ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING…AND
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING…WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 7 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

——————————————————————————–

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
553 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082>086-099-261100-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-ACCOMACK-
553 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA…EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA…SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA…THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA…THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA…THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

——————————————————————————–

——————————————————————————–

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082-083-085-251730-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FARMVILLE…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…
RICHMOND
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING
METRO RICHMOND.

* HAZARDS: ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING…AND
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING…WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 7 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

2/25/2015: Evening Update

Forecast models and the local stations have been increasing totals throughout the day. Storm totals range from 4-6 (NWS), 4-8 (NBC12), 4-8 (WxRisk) to 5-10 (ABC8). The NWS graphic is posted below. Of course, a Winter Storm Warning is now in effect:

NWS Snow Forecast, 2.25.15 (Evening) — NWS Snow Forecast, 2/25/15 (Evening)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082>086-260415-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
/O.COR.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...
RICHMOND
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
  THE METRO RICHMOND AREA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
  OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
  AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW
  SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
  ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 10 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

February 8, 2014: Light Snow?

February 7, 2014 Ryan_R Leave a comment

NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT APPROACHES FM THE WSW
TNGT…THEN TRACKS ACRS THE FA ON SAT. MDL TRENDS CONT TO SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE A HI PROB FOR PCPN…BEGINNING LT TNGT W…AND
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ON SAT. WK SFC LO PRES ONCE AGN PASSES BY WELL
S OF THE RGN ON SAT…WHILE SHEARED OUT S/W ALOFT CROSSES THE
NRN/CNTRL PORTION OF THE FA. WILL CONT W/ IDEA OF POPS FM HI CHC
TO LIKELY…W/ HIGHEST QPF ACRS SE VA/NE NC. P-TYPE WILL BE
CHALLENGING…AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NR/ABV 32F EXCEPT OVER
THE INTERIOR (EARLY) IN THE AM HRS. WILL HAVE MNLY RA FOR SE VA/NE
NC…W/ MIXED P-TYPE IN A NARROW RIBBON (FM ENE TO WSW) IN BETWEEN
THAT RA…AND A PD OF SN ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PCPN
COVERAGE XPCD TO DECREASE DURG SAT AFTN/EVE. SN ACCUMS ATTM (MNLY
ALG-NW OF A FVX TO SBY LN) LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. OTRW…MNLY
CLDY FOR THE DAY…HI TEMPS FM THE U30S ACRS THE N…TO THE M40S
S.

Observation, Winter Weather

January 28-29, 2014: Observations

January 28, 2014 Ryan_R Leave a comment

Event Updates:

As of 9:00 PM on 1/28, there is approximately 1″ of snow on all surfaces in Church Hill. Temperature continues to slowly fall and is hovering at 15.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Church Hill Storm Observation Summary:
* Place – Time: Church Hill, (1/30/2014)
* Temperature: 12-20, During Event
* Dewpoint: 1-10, During Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A%
* Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Advisory
* Road Conditions: All roads covered during event, primary roads cleared by the morning of 1/22. However, secondary roads were still partially snow covered for 2-3 days after event.
* Precipitation Description: Very small snowflakes. Event remained all snow. Snow was so light that it could be swept off of hard surfaces.
* Total Precipitation: 2 and 1/2” (2.5”) of snow. Liquid equivalent of 0.14” fell during the event, which equates to a snow ration of 1:17.9! 2″ to 3″ fell across metro area. 3.1 inches of snow was reported at the airport. Snowfall totals were heavier towards the Bay and Hampton Roads area (6-10” was common).
* Comments: The snow began around the metro area around 3:30-4 PM. Temperatures dropped during the day (due to the passage of an arctic front) and snowfall was light during the entire event. A low tracking off the NC coast spread precipitation into most of Virginia. Wind during the event, averaging 5 MPH or less, was light. Accumulations were present on most surfaces. Snow was measured in the backyard of the house. Snow continued until about 4 AM on January 29th where the temperature dropped to nearly 10 degrees. By far, one of the coldest snow events I’ve witnessed. There was a 1.5 hour delay for Chesterfield County Government Offices.

Snowfall Totals:

Videos:

Photos:

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 28-29, 2014: Snow Forecast

January 28, 2014 Ryan_R Leave a comment

A complex system may impact Central Virginia where anything but model consensus can be found. A low pressure developing on the edge of an arctic front will cause widespread snow from southern Texas to the Middle Atlantic. Models have slowly increased precipitation around metro Richmond in the 24-hours leading up to the event. Still, most of the precipitation will likely be south and east of the metro area (VA beach could easily see 6-12″ of snow) which is located closer to the low off the Hatteras coast.

Below are some forecast images from the NWS. The forecast has evolved over the last 2 days from a chance at flurries to around 1-2″ of snow in Metro Richmond.

NWS Forecast Totals, Updated at 9 PM on 1/28/14.

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 17, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow

January 16, 2013 Ryan_R Leave a comment

An upper level low riding along a stalled front to the south of Virginia could bring significant snowfall to all of Central Virginia tomorrow night. Hints at the potential for a winter storm were noted earlier in the week in some of the major weather models. Model disagreements were based on the timing of the cold air arrival and how much moisture would overspread into Central Virginia. Both NAM and GFS point to the possibility of significant snowfall amounts for tomorrow night. Current thoughts from Wakefield include:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW/PV ANOMALY AS IT LIFTS OUT
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WATERS WILL BE NEARLY ONE INCH WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THE
IMPORTANT DGZ. SHARP HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE SFC THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 200+ KT
JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN…POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES…OVER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LOCATE OVER THE WRN AND NRN
FA…WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FA THURSDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT…COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR WORKING INTO THIS
DYNAMIC OF A SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON…FIRST ACROSS THE NW. HAVE GONE UNDER
MODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL/MILD WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.
HOWEVER…STRONG UVM IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR LARGER FLAKES AND
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL HELP SNOW ACCUMULATE REGARDLESS
OF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER THING TO OVERCOME IS LOW
LEVEL TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING…TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
HAVE GONE UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TOMORROW EVENING AS PRECIP
FALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP COOL THE LOW LEVELS. AS
THE LOW PUSHES OUT OVER THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS
NE…COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SW ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS DRY/COLD W/NW FLOW WORKS INTO THE
REGION…PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING…UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NW TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LITTLE…IF ANY…SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
(SREF PROBABILITIES OF >4 INCHES EXCEEDS 50 PCT)…HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IS PRECIP BANDING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE SAT GEO POT VORT INDICATE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BANDING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. GRASSY SURFACES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF…WHICH ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY (850 TEMPS FALL TO -7 TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL OVER 20 M) AND AN EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM REACHING 40 ANY MANY LOCALES. WHILE SKIES WILL FINALLY
CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS…NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH…STRONGER NEAR THE COAST…WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

Some other images of the possible storm:

RVAWX.com

Tag Archives: southern slider

February 26, 2015: Snow from Southern Slider?

February 8, 2014: Light Snow?

January 28-29, 2014: Observations

January 28-29, 2014: Snow Forecast

January 17, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow

Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia