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Could Metro Richmond be in store for a President’s Day storm in 2012? The likelihood of a possible winter weather event for Central Virginia is gaining traction today. A lot of caution needs to be placed on the table as the models for this event have been all over the board this week. On Sunday and Monday, the lower Middle Atlantic seemed to be in the cross-hairs of a potential major storm for this weekend. By mid-week, the threat shifted north and east of Central Virginia to include DC through NYC. The models (for the time being) have reined in the idea of a coastal storm exiting Carolina coast and cruising up the eastern seaboard. Now, the storm stays suppressed and hammers the majority of the wintery precipitation through WVA, VA and parts of MD and DE. Still a lot of time for the models and overall model consensus on this storm to shift. In the meantime, Richmond has a slight chance of having our first major winter storm of the season.
Below are some current predictions based on the models this afternoon:
18Z GFS Snowfall Forecast12Z Euro 3-Hr Snowfall Map, 2/16/2012
NWS Forecast
Updates for 2/17/2012:
The chances for accumulating snow Sunday afternoon, evening and early Monday are increasing. The NAM this morning buried Richmond with 8-11″ of snow. I’m still unsure if this will pan out, but it looks like we have something fun to watch! Also, the 12Z GFS today still shows 3-4″ of snow for Richmond. The trend looks to be our friend if you are a snow lover!
For such a short event, the snow squall that moved through on Saturday, February 11th will be remembered for its intensity, lightening and thunder. Several reports of thundersnow were observed around Metro Richmond and areas to the west as the snow squall moved through in the mid-afternoon hours. The snow and wind picked up quickly asd the arctic front pushed through the area around 3:30 PM. Approximately 0.06″ of liquid precipitation fell in about 25 minutes. In that same time period, the temperature dropped 9 degrees from 44 to 35!
NWS Snowfall Storm Map
For Church Hill, this brought the first measurable snow of the 2011-2012 season. The amount of snow that collected on cars and grassy surfaces was about 0.2″ of an inch. Not much more than a trace, but still measurable on the elevated and grassy surfaces.
The shortwave that was anticipated to roll through central Virginia late in the evening of the 11th-12th materialized, but the bulk of the moisture stayed to the east of Metro Richmond. I observed a few flurries around 12:30-1:00 AM on Sunday morning.
My Storm Report:
* Place – Time: Church Hill, 3:35 PM (1/28/2011) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 35-44, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 32-34, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
* Road Conditions: Primary roads passable. Secondary roads passable as well.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes heavy snow fell throughout the event.
* Total Precip: 0.2″ of snow on mulch, grass and elevated surfaces. Liquid Equivalent of 0.06″ fell during the event.
* Comments: Precipitation started at 3:35 PM as a very brief mix of gropple and snow. The precipitation quickly changed to moderate and heavy snow with winds sustained between 10-20 MPH. Precipitation was spurred by an arctic frontal boundary that created a squall line through central Virginia. Thunder preceding the event could be heard to the south and was reported to the NWS during the event as it rolled through Metro Richmond. Snow lasted for about 30 minutes.
The next weather headline coming our way this weekend involves a frontal boundary that will usher in a brief bout of arctic air for Sunday into Monday for Metro Richmond. As the frontal passage comes through, there is a small chance of the rain changing to snow in Central Virginia. It looks unlikely that any accumulating snow will fall from this event. The NWS has us recieving some rain showers and nothing else from the frontal passage. Nonetheless, it is a possible snow event to watch evolve over the next two days. In any case, a windy and winter like day is in store for Sunday (2/12/12).
It’s been one heck of a winter chasing snow. Now I’m really grasping for straws here, but there might be a possibility of some flurries this evening as the moisture from the system pulls away from the middle atlantic states. I’d rate the chance of seeing some snow this evening in the 5-10% chance.
Is there a viable chance for snow this weekend? Some models seem to be hinting at a colder solution that would allow for this weekend’s storm to end as a period of light sleet and snow. The 12Z NAM grazes the area with 1-2 inches of snow on early Sunday. The 12Z GFS keeps Metro Richmond on the warm side with 850 MB temperatures. The forecast looks anything but certain at this point as the cut-off low from the mid-west drifts towards the mid-atlantic late tomorrow into Sunday.
Current Radar:
Update (2/6/2012):
No snow or flurries appeared this weekend. The moisture raced out of Metro Richmond by 2-3 AM. Sunday remained mostly cloudy. The snow drought continues.
Name: December 18-19th Storm of 2009 (Peacock Day Storm)
Date: December 18-19, 2009
Precipitation Observed: 7.5” (Church Hill)
RIC Airport Total Snowfall Observation: 7.4”
Precipitation Type: Primarily Snow, followed by Sleet & Freezing Rain/Drizzle
Radar of the event from 12/19/2009, 1Z
The December 18-19th, 2009 snowstorm will mark the third winter storm to be profiled in a series of articles to be posted on our blog. We hope you find these weather event musings entertaining and factual. These articles will portray some of the most memorable snow events that Russ and I have lived through while residing in Richmond, Virginia.
Before the Storm: With the early March storm of 2009, expectations were running high for the start of the winter season of 2009-2010. By Thursday, December 17th, the NWS had issued a winter storm watch for Metro Richmond warning of a snow event that could drop 6 to 12 inches of snow. The anticipation of experiencing a major winter storm before the actual start of the astronomical winter season was rare. To put how rare December snowstorms are in Richmond, the NWS compiled a nice graphic ranking this storm to other December snowfalls:
Synoptic Overview of Storm System: A low pressure system developed over the Gulf Coast spawned a widespread snow event from north Georgia to the coastal sections of Maine. The first reference link below provides a much more detailed and analytical write-up of the system’s dynamics.
Video of Event from Church Hill (My Home):
The Main Event: This event started just after sunset on Friday, December 18th, lasting until the early morning hours of December 19th in Metro Richmond. Russ & I were anticipating this event several days before the first flake fell from the sky. I still have a fond memory of looking for the first flakes to fall while sitting at work. Just as it was time to leave work, snow began falling. The snow rate intensified at quick clip from 5 to 8 PM. Snow continued to fall at a high rate with little in the way of wind being observed through most of the evening hours. Prior to 11 PM on the 18th, the most intense part of the storm hit. The wind picked up slightly and the snowfall rate accelerated to over an inch an hour. Near midnight, Russ and I found measurements of snow in a nearby field on M Street between 8-9”. Shortly thereafter, the precipitation began to slowly wind down and changed from snow to sleet, freezing rain and even drizzle for the remainder of the night. By 6 AM on the 19th, the temperature rose to 33.6 degrees.
Snow intermittently fell the next day as the storm cranked up the coast towards New England. Between 4-6 PM on the 19th, we had a small batch of snow showers move in, giving us a light dusting of snow.
Again, Russ took some excellent video footage of the event that showed the intensity of the snowfall.
My official measurement coincided with the official measurement at the airport. Had the snow not changed over to sleet, freezing rain and drizzle, there is no doubt that we could have seen 8-10” from this storm in Church Hill. Areas to the north and west of town saw substantially more snow than Downtown Richmond.
I got an interesting email from Larry at the NWS Wakefield office about Richmond historical winter snow totals. See the email below:
“We have recorded at trace of snow thus far this season at Richmond (the only season that finished with just a trace is 1918-19). The 2nd lowest amount in a season was 0.5” in 1944-45. For “seasonal snowfall” the entire season is considered so we will need to have no measurable snow for Feb, Mar, Apr this year to tie the 1918-19 season. Recently in 2006-07, we had just 0.3″ by the end of March…appeared to be set to have the 2nd lowest snowfall season on record…until Easter Sunday in April recorded 1.0″ making the seasonal total 1.3″…9th lowest.”
What a bizarre January that was. No accumulating snow, sleet, ice or even grauple! 2.01″ of rain. 21 days with a high temp of 50* or greater. 10 days with a low above freezing (32*). A mean temp of 42.3*. Wow! The “Anti-Winter”. This may go on record, if February continues the trend, as one of Richmond’s warmest, least snowy ever. What a bummer for snow junkies…
As Jim Duncan tweeted recently, I’m ready to throw in the towel on this winter…
Precipitation Observed: No Official Measurement* (Church Hill), Western Chesterfield – 10″ (unofficially)
RIC Airport Total Snowfall Observation: 6.3”
Precipitation Type: Snow
The March 1st, 2009 snowstorm will mark the second winter storm to be profiled in a series of articles to be posted on our blog. We hope you find these weather event musings entertaining and factual. These articles will portray some of the most memorable snow events that Russ and I have lived through while residing in Richmond, Virginia.
Before the Storm: As a snow lover living in Richmond, you are used to either 1) being bypassed by large snow events to the north and west of town or 2) a victim of overforecastation by the local media and sometimes the National Weather Service (NWS). Overforecastation is a term I define as “the over prediction of snow, even in small amounts.” Russ and I can recount several potential snow events in the past where the forecast ended up busting with either mixed-bag or starry-night surprise. Richmond’s placement in the coastal plain adjacent to the Appalachian Mountains creates unique forecasting challenges when it comes down to snow and ice events. Forecasting snow in Richmond will likely always be a tricky proposition, no matter which way you look at it.
Adding to what Ryan said, forecasting any winter storm in Richmond is always very difficult. It is often not known what the storm should produce until about 36-24 hours prior to the arrival, or less. Richmond is often plagued by snow/mix/rain line location problems (the rain/snow line is often right on top of Richmond, setting up right along I-95). A 10-20 mile shift of this could mean all snow or snow/sleet mix, or snow to rain changeover. It is very frustrating. I’ve lived in the Richmond metro area all my life (since 1982) and this creates extremely frustrating outcomes more often than not.
I’ve lived in Richmond since the summer of 2005. Between 2005 and 2009, Richmond was in a bona fide snow drought. I have a vague memory of a few minor snow events occurring during this time period, nothing really exceeding much more than an inch or two of snow. A check of the climate data from the Richmond Airport verifies a few years of below-average seasonal snowfall totals:
2005-06
8.50”
2006-07
1.30”
2007-08
0.80”
2008-09
6.60”
Synoptic Overview of Storm System: A low pressure system swinging from the lower Tennessee Valley up the eastern seaboard spawned a widespread snow event from the Southeast all the way up into northern New England. The first reference link below provides a much more detailed and analytical write-up of the system’s dynamics.
Video of Event from Church Hill (My Home):
The Main Event: This event started in the late evening hours of February 28th, lasting until the early morning hours of March 1st in Metro Richmond. The snow came down at quick clip for several hours. I remember being a little surprised by the intensity and seasonal lateness of this storm. March snowstorms typically don’t occur in Metro Richmond. Late in the winter season, shots of cold air and moisture rarely combine to create a pure snow event. We are much more likely to see a mixed precipitation event or a snow to rain event. In this instance, cold air held on strong and we were able to pick up all snow from this event.
*Western Chesterfield: The only differences in the effects of this storm for the northwestern part of Chesterfield was that slightly heavier banding set up leading to an unofficial measurement of 10″ of snow. Also, a secondary, wrap-around band of snow set up late overnight into the early morning of the 2nd. This, mainly light snow, formed around 12AM and remained stationary until it dissipated around 8-9AM on the 2nd. As Ryan stated, this storm was unusual for several reasons. First, it was a late season snow storm. Second, for Richmond, we rarely see ALL snow from any major winter storm. We had no mixing from what I recall. Third, the amount of snow was, for Richmond, a fairly large amount. The NESIS ranked this as 42nd on the list.
Notice the blue patch over Richmond
See the radar loop of the event over at the link below
The video that Russ took during the event does a nice job showing the intensity of the snowfall.
The snowfall total at the airport was the largest snowfall measurement since the January 2002 snowstorm. The storm officially ended the “unofficial” snow drought Richmond had been stuck in since 2002**.
Video of Event, Sledding in Church Hill:
* No official measurements were taken at my home in Church Hill. However, my memory and storm photos place the snowfall total in the range of 6-8 inches. (I, Russ, recall about 9.5″ at this location)
** The last time a total of more than 6” was reported at the RIC Airport prior to the March 1, 2009 storm occurred on January 3, 2002 with 7.7” (a daily record as well).
Another fast moving clipper combined with a low-pressure system developing in the lower plains/Tennessee Valley will give the Richmond area a chance of sleet/rain mix this evening into early Saturday morning. The local meteorologists have hinted at this possible scenario for about two days now and have kept it in the forecast.
No accumulating snow is expected at this point. It looks like you will have to go as far north as Maryland (maybe DC/NOVA) to see any appreciable accumulation of snow or ice.
Normally this type of event would not be worth commenting on. However, Richmond has not seen any accumulating snow as of today (1/20/2012) or in any of the previous months of this winter season. Therefore, there is a little excitement in the air to have the possibility of even a small wintry event tonight into tomorrow morning.
NBC12 has also hinted at a small chance of freezing rain tomorrow night (1/21 to 1/22) as another round of precipitation rolls in.
Radar:
Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia
