Monthly Archives: December 2010

Forecast Discussion

December 25-26, 2010: Wx Observations *CLOSED*

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What a roller coaster ride this storm event has been! Only 24 hours ago, most of the local meteorologists were calling for a dusting to an inch of snowfall today. The weather models were consistently pushing the system out to sea with little impact on the commonwealth. Late last night, the models took a dramatic shift by pulling the storm back to the coast, supporting the position of the Euro model only two days ago. This looks like a potentially record setting snow storm for the east coast. As of 10:30 AM, the NWS forecast for Richmond is:

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 32. North wind between 8 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

That’s about 2-6″. Other professional meteorologists have us pegged for 6-12″. There has even been mention of 9-15″ in Metro Richmond. Observations will begin this afternoon with photos and videos going up this evening and into tomorrow.

The current radar:

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 25-26, 2010: Wx Event *OPEN*

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The latest computer guidance and models seem to be coming into agreement for a sizable storm for central and southeastern Virginia this weekend. The NWS forecast for the weekend storm is (Richmond Metro):

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The latest 12z GFS is sowing the formation of a costal storm during the day on Saturday:

Stay tuned for further updates.

Update: 12/24/2010

The models have come into general agreement that this storm will take a more easterly path and not create a massive snow storm for central Virginia. Instead, a smaller upper level disturbance from the Midwest will likely swing through tomorrow afternoon (12/25) and tomorrow night to produce some snow showers. Local meteorologists are estimating anywhere from a dusting to an inch. The track of this storm is still uncertain, so it will still bear some watching today and tomorrow. Observation posts will be posted tomorrow if snow looks likely.

Forecast Discussion, News, Observation

December 16, 2010: Winter Wx Event Updates *CLOSED*

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Observations for the impending winter storm will be posted here, along with photos, videos, maps and radar images.

Snow Video 2

Snow Video

Radar Loop

12:16 9:00AM

Snow falling in Midlo

Radar

12/16 2:30AM

Temp: 17*

DP: 10*

Radar Loop

12/15 3:30PM: Winter Storm Warning issued by NWS. 3″-5″ snow expected

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.


12/15 9:00PM: Not much has changed in the past few hours in terms of the forecast. Some areas to the west had the snow totals increased to 3-7″


The main precip shield is still just west of the Apps, and, amazingly, it stretches NW up to Bismark!


12/15 21:00Z
Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 16-17, 2010: WSW ISSUED

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WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

VAZ048-060>062-065>071-079>082-087>089-161030-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND...SOUTH HILL...
CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE...
PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

 

It appears that before the potentially large winter storm this weekend, Richmond is slated for a glancing blow by a system coming out of the Rockies early Thursday into Thursday night. The temperature profiles for the system seem to indicate a snow event for Richmond, but some of the local meteorologists and NWS are calling for some mixing (a changeover to sleet and freezing rain). The NWS is currently expecting 2″-4″ of snow, and we could get as much as 3″-6″ before all is said and done. Mixing issue Thursday evening could limit accumulations. Snow is expected to begin around 9AM tomorrow morning.

Snow Amount Map - TWC

Below is the 00z GFS from 12/15/2010. It shows us in .25-.50 liquid precip, which is roughly 2.5″-5″ of snow.

00Z GFS
18Z NAM

18Z NAM:

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 19-22, 2010: Winter Wx *CLOSED*

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Saw on the local news that next week (19th-22nd) looks very interesting. Could we have the coveted coastal storm setup brewing? We’ll be keeping an eye on the models and posting updates. Feel free to join in on the discussion.

The 00GFS waffled again…now the storm slides OTS…

The image below is the 18z gfs and it shows us getting 9-10″ of snow total!

This graph of the 18z GFS data shows 9″ as well

12/21/2010 Update:

No measurable precipitation affected the Richmond metro area for this projected storm. Instead, the bulk of the moisture was confined to the southeast portion of the state. The sotrm system was wisked out to sea (OTS) without so much a flurry in downtown Richmond. Below is an image of the storm prior to it exiting the southeast coast: