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From: Richmond, VA
Education: B.A. Urban Affair & Planning - Virginia Tech
Graduate Education: Master's Degree in Land Use Planning - Virginia Tech
Hobbies: Weather Enthusiast, Technology/Gadgets/Computer Geek, Video Games, Photography, Music (Tool, Deftones, The Decemberists, DCfC, KMFDM, Alice in Chains, Puscifer, Rilo Kiley, Radiohead)
Today through Wednesday night should be cloudy with patchy drizzle. More significant rain will come Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A thunderstorm is possible on Wednesday as well with the passing of a cold front.
The cold front will bring more seasonal temps from Thursday through next week, with highs in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s and lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.
The long range models are hinting at a chilly start to December. More to come on that later…
So far, November has been quiet on the wx front. It’s been a bit chiily with lows in the 30’s and a few days a showers.
Longer trends keep the cool air dominant in Central VA, with highs mainly in the 60’s and lows in the mid-upper 30’s.
Meteorological winter starts December 1st, and early forecasts shows normal temps and precip for Central VA and the Mid-Atlantic.
I’ll go ahead and make my guess for RVA’s first inch of snow…..January 3rd. My guess for Winter 11-12 snow total….16.5″ of the precious white stuff.
More updates as winter inches closer…Expect more posts about potential winter storms, winter storm obervations, and pictures, data, and other goodies. Bookmark this blog!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010
...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
* ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
12/15 9:00PM: Not much has changed in the past few hours in terms of the forecast. Some areas to the west had the snow totals increased to 3-7″
The main precip shield is still just west of the Apps, and, amazingly, it stretches NW up to Bismark!
Saw on the local news that next week (19th-22nd) looks very interesting. Could we have the coveted coastal storm setup brewing? We’ll be keeping an eye on the models and posting updates. Feel free to join in on the discussion.
The 00GFS waffled again…now the storm slides OTS…
The image below is the 18z gfs and it shows us getting 9-10″ of snow total!
This graph of the 18z GFS data shows 9″ as well
12/21/2010 Update:
No measurable precipitation affected the Richmond metro area for this projected storm. Instead, the bulk of the moisture was confined to the southeast portion of the state. The sotrm system was wisked out to sea (OTS) without so much a flurry in downtown Richmond. Below is an image of the storm prior to it exiting the southeast coast:
The NWS has now changed Thursday’s forecast to “Snow Likely” with a 60% chance. Snow should start around 9-10AM and continue through early evening. It may mix with some sleet and/or freezing rain as it tapers off.
The NAM is showing 3-4″ for us, as of the last run. We’ll monitor this as Thursday nears.
Check out the excel spreadsheet at the link. I plan on working on a huge database covering every monthly report since 1982 for Richmond. Look for more info and ways to help soon.
