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RVAWX.com | Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia | Page 5

February 12-13, 2014: Observations (Pax)

Event Updates:

As of 3:30 PM on 2/13, there is approximately 1.5″ of snow/sleet on the majority of surfaces in Church Hill. Temperature continues to slowly fall and is hovering at 34 degrees Fahrenheit. Rain has changed to sleet and now snow.

Radar from afternoon of 2/13/2014

Radar from evening of 2/12/2014
Radar from evening of 2/12/2014

Church Hill Storm Observation Summary:
* Place – Time: Church Hill, (2/13/2014)
* Temperature: 25-37, During Event
* Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Warning
* Closings: Chesterfield Government Closed on 2/13/14
* Road Conditions: All roads covered during event, primary roads cleared by the morning of 2/13. However, secondary roads were still partially snow covered.
* Precipitation Description: Snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Initial snow was very fine and powdery snowflakes. Event transitioned from snow to sleet near 11 PM on 2/12. Sleet changed to freezing rain by 1:00 AM on 2/13/14. Rain and Drizzle followed during the early morning hours until 2 PM on 2/13/14. Sleet and the sleet to snow transitioned back into Richmond by 3:30 PM.
* Total Precipitation: 5.75″ (4.25” of snow on 2/12, 1.5″ of snow on 2/13). Approximately 0.25″ of sleet. Minor accumulations of freezing rain. 3.7″ inches of snow was reported at the airport on 2/12, 2.1″ inches of snow was reported at the airport on 2/12 for a total of 5.8″. Snowfall totals were heavier towards the peidmont and mountains in western Virginia (6-21” was common).
* Comments: Snow began near 4 PM at the Chesterfield Courthouse on 2/12/14. Nearly .75″ had accumulated by 5:30 PM when I left work. My commute home took nearly an hour, which is about twice as long as it normally takes. Heavy snow occurred for about an hour between 9-10 PM when about an inch of snow fell. The precipitation quickly transitioned to sleet. Freezing rain then set in late in the evening after I went to bed. As the storm wrapped up on 2/13, drizzle changed to a brief round of heavy sleet and rain with two loud rumbles of thunder. An hour later, the second round of precipatation hit with moderate to heavy snowfall. The snow tapered off by 7 PM dropping another 1.5″ of snow.

Snowfall Totals:

NWS Updated Snowfall Map for 2/12-2/13
NWS Updated Snowfall Map for 2/12-2/13

Videos:

NWS Special Weather Statement:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

VAZ063-070>072-080>083-132230-
HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...
PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL
358 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR THROUGH 530 PM...

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR FROM THE TRI-CITIES TO RICHMOND THRU 530 PM. THE SNOW
WILL COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AND QUICKLY COVER ROAD SURFACES. A COATING TO UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN IF TRAVELING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BE
PREPARED FOR POOR VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

$$

JM

February 13-14, 2014: Day of Event NWS Forecast

For posterity sake, here is the latest forecast for downtown Richmond related to tonight’s snowfall.

NWS Snowfall Forecast for 2/13/14 Event (NWS 2/13/14)
NWS Snowfall Forecast for 2/13/14 Event (NWS 2/13/14)

 

NWS 6 Hour Snowfall Accumulation
NWS 6 Hour Snowfall Accumulation

 

NWS Forecast for Richmond, Day of Event
NWS Forecast for Richmond, Day of Event

 

NWS Forecast Discussion:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/…

— Changed Discussion —

UPDATED AT 11AM…
BROAD AREA OF WINTRY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE HAS LIFTED NWD INTO SRN NC AS OF 11 AM. 12/12Z KMHX
SOUNDINGS SHOWS VERY MOIST PROFILE…EXCEPT A NARROW DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 950-900MB. EXPECT THIS DRY LAYER TO BECOME OVERWHELMED
RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SURGES NWD.
HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED POP GRIDS…ALTHOUGH TRENDS INDICATE
THE PRECIP MAY MOVE IN SLIGHTLY FASTER.

OTHERWISE…PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SFC
OBSERVATIONS…WILL BEGIN TO TREND THE CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY
WARMER DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE H85 LOW AND THE WARM NOSE. THE
RESULT WILL PUSH THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WWD WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF ACCUMULATING ICE OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL VA (ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR). THIS
WILL ALSO IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMULATIONS
(PERHAPS 4-8 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF RICHMOND). THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WAIT TO
UPDATE SNOW/QPF/WX FORECAST UNTIL ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE COMES
IN…BUT DO ANTICIPATE A SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH WINTRY PRECIP.

EMPHASIS STILL REMAINS ON THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION…PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION…
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING, WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT JUST OFF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. TO THE NORTH, ~1037MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND IS RIDGING DOWN
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WV/IR SAT SHOWING OVERRUNNING
MSTR PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING…WITH ONLY A
SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

OVERVIEW…
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AKQ
CWA TODAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHAMPTON
NC/GREENSVILLE/SUSSEX…ALONG WITH INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA…VA NORTHERN NECK AND DORCHESTER
COUNTY MD. SEE WBCWSWAKQ FOR LATEST INFO.

PRECIPITATION…
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT SWATH OF PCPN
ALREADY PUSHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AT SUNRISE.
PRECIP CHCS QUICKLY INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
MID-LATE AFTN /JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FAR NORTH/. THICKNESSES
SUGGEST PCPN STARTS OFF AS SNOW, THEN BECOMES A MIXTURE OF PCPN
ACROSS SERN AREAS WITH SERN COASTAL AREAS GOING OVER TO RAIN BY
00Z. HIGHS L-M30S EXCEPT M-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

CHALLENGING FCST WRT PINNING DOWN SNOW AMTS…AND EXACTLY WHEN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS. OVERALL, STILL EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF I-95 SHOULD BE SEEING MOST SIG SNOW THROUGH THU
MORNING. HOWEVER, FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXPECT “THE BIG SHOW” TO
BE WITH INITIAL SLUG OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN TONIGHT. 00Z/12
GFS FEATURES A NARROW STRIP OF NEGATIVE EPV AT H6-7 LATE
TONIGHT/ERY THU MORNING JUST SE OF RIC METRO (FGEN BAND ORIENTED
ALONG NORTH CWA BORDER). MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES APPEAR MORE SLANTWISE THAN UPRIGHT FOR TSSN (UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY BEING THE MORE IDEAL). STILL, NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDER SNOW WITH THAT FGEN BAND LATE
THIS EVENING…AND HV ADDED HVY SNOW WORDING EARLY TONIGHT TO
CONVEY QUICK RAMP UP TO HVY PCPN COINCIDING WITH ONSET OF EVENING
RUSH HOUR.

TEMPERATURES/TIMING THE CHANGEOVER…
WHILE “BIG SHOW” WL COME THIS EVENING, BUT BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE COMES OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THU AFTN. THANKS TO THE HIGH RETREATING OVER NORTHERN
NE…SYNOPTIC SETUP/CLIMO DON`T FAVOR COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
AS LONG AS IT WOULD IF BETTER BLOCKING REGIME WERE IN PLACE. USED
A GFS/EC/SREF BLEND FOR QPF/THICKNESSES/TIMING. THIS BLEND IS A
HAIR WARMER THAN THE CMC…BUT A BIT COOLER THAN THE PRVS
FORECAST. EC/GFS BLEND WAS USED FOR SFC LOW TRACK, WHICH IS JUST A
BIT EAST OF WPC TRACK. QPF GENERALLY ~1″ NORTH TO AN INCH AND ONE
HALF ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES.

THINKING IS FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HVY SNOW BTWN 00Z-06Z
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA NW OF A EMPORIA- WAKEFIELD- NEWPORT NEWS-
SALISBURY LINE. LOW PRES APPROACHES CAPE HAT AFTER 06Z…THICKNESSES
SUGGEST ENUF OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT TO INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO A
MIXED BAG OF PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A I85-I95 LINE WITH MOST
AREAS E OF I95 GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE. APPEARS NWRN MOST
COUNTYS STAY SNOW THRU THE EVENT WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS
THERE. A TRANSITION OVER TO A MIXED BAG OF PCPN WITH AREAS E/SE OF
I95 GOING OVER TO RAIN. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET… THUS SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OR SO PSBL.
LOWS 25-30 WEST OF CHES BAY AND LWR MD ERN SHORE…RANGING TO
M-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

AS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…TYPICAL MID-ATLANTIC EVENT ACROSS THE
AKQ CWA. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NW TIER OF THE WARNING AREA… WITH 10-12+” OF SNOW A
GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF US 360 (CREWE/FVX ON NW). A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMS ACROSS THE WEST
END WITH ACCUMS IN THE 6-10 RANGE. MORE MIXING (AND SOME FZRA)
SHOULD KEEP TRI-CITIES AREA IN 4-8 RANGE. 2-4 ACRS HAMPTON ROADS
(HENCE THE WINTER WX ADVY FOR WESTERN TIDEWATER). WHILE WE HV
SKIPPED WINTER WX ADVY FOR SOUTHERN TIDEWATER/COASTAL NE
NC…EXPECT A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RA.

THURSDAY…
MIXED PCPN CONTS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. CAA ON BACK SIDE
OF LOW COMBINED WITH A PRONOUNCED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE RESULTS IN
THE PCPN TURNING BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES
CRASH TOWARD THE COAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN NECK/ERN SHORE.
HIGHS M-U30S EXCEPT NR 40 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

— End Changed Discussion —

February 12-13, 2014: Winter Storm Warning

Late evening update on the latest snowfall forecast from the NWS and their text on the Winter Storm Warning:

NWS Snowfall Forecast, Evening of 2/11/14.
NWS Snowfall Forecast, Evening of 2/11/14.

Winter Storm Warning Text:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
551 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

VAZ065-066-070-071-079-080-121200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0003.140212T1800Z-140214T0000Z/
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH HILL...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...
RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE
551 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN
  OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS POSSIBLE
  FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR EARLY
  THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE
  HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. A TRACE
  TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS AS IT ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND
  POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

February 12-13, 2014: Heavy Snow from Miller A?

Another 24 hours has passed and models still trending towards a complex weather system impacting the area tomorrow into Thursday morning. Below are some graphics on the storm system. In addition, language for the winter storm watch is also posted.

NWS Forecast from morning of 2/11/14,.
NWS Forecast from morning of 2/11/14,.
NWS Forecast from the morning of  2/11/14.
NWS Forecast from the morning of 2/11/14.

 

NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…

— Changed Discussion —

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM PRIMED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY…

 

OVERVIEW…

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AS AFOREMENTIONED NRN AND SRN

STREAM ENERGY WL PHASE INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF STATES

WED/WED NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED AS

THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR OVER THE NERN GULF WED PM, AS AMPLIFYING FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT

MOISTURE NWD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO

RETREAT…BUT WILL REMAIN RIDGED DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA.

STRONG SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE FROM THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE…FURTHER

ENHANCING THE FLOW OVER THE SE, WHICH WILL SERVE TO EJECT THE

SHORTWAVE NE. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIDEWATER AND NE NC. IF CURRENT

TRENDS HOLD WITH 12Z SUITE, UPGRADES TO WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WOULD

BE NEEDED TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MANY FACETS TO THIS EVENT…WHICH

BREAK DOWN AS FOLLOWS:

 

PRECIPITATION…

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN BY A FEW HOURS, BUT

GIVEN THAT WAA PRECIP/OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN REALIZED QUICKER THAN

MODELS INDICATE, DID NOT CHANGE ONSET TIMING FROM PREVIOUS

FORECAST. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC

LOW…LIFTING IT ALONG THE SE COAST LATE WED TO JUST OFFSHORE LATE

WED NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. 11/00Z ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG

THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO SE VA/NE NC THU MORNING.

 

CHC POP WED MORNING/AFTN RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS WED AFTN/NIGHT

AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE DYNAMICAL

FORCING FOR ASCENT (STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT) OVER THE MID-

ATLANTIC. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG Q-VECTOR

CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE REGION (STRONGEST

BETWEEN H6-7). THIS RESULTS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIP

UNDERNEATH THIS BANDING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL SNOW FOR ALL BUT

FAR SE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN…POSSIBLY A BRIEF

PERIOD OF SLEET AS LAYER MOISTENING ENSUES. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SFC LOW

APPROACHES COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE SOUTH, AND WARM AIR MOVING IN

ALOFT SHOULD START MIXING IN SOME SLEET, EVENTUALLY CHANGING THE

SNOW OVER TO SLEET OR R/ZR PER BUFR SOUNDINGS. PRECIP WILL BEGIN

TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN OVER THE SE…BUT REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER

THE PIEDMONT. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO

EAST-CENTRAL VA (MAINLY I-95 EAST) AS A WARM NOSE WARMS TEMPS TO

~2-4C BTWN 950 AND 850MB. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF

SNOW/SLEET/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. STILL TOO EARLY TO IRON OUT EXACT

PTYPES IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE…BUT IT SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE THAT

THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATING ICE ON TOP OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW

OVER CNTRL VA. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUNCH INTO THE SE AS THE LOW

LOCATES JUST OFF THE VA COAST THU MORNING, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY

TURN INTO JUST LGT RA/DZ ACROSS THE SE AS MOISTURE ALOFT SLACKENS.

MEANWHILE, MOISTURE AXIS WILL LOCATE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA

AND THE MD ERN SHORE. MODELS INDICATE STRONG DYNAMICS IN THIS

MOISTURE AXIS WITH STRONG LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH LEVEL. MODEL GEO

POT VORT IS ALSO NEGATIVE IN THIS REGION…WHICH ALSO PORTENDS TO

POSSIBLY ENHANCING BANDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WILL MAINTAIN

LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AS THE PV ANOMALY

CATCHES UP WITH THE LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO OCCLUDE AND

SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA AS TEMPS

MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN…BUT DYNAMIC COOLING MAY TRANSITION

IT BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PCPN TAPERS OFF.

 

TEMPERATURE…

OBVIOUSLY DEPENDANT ON EXACT TRACK. USED A BLENDED SOLUTION FROM THE

ECMWF/CMC/NAM (BLENDED IN THAT ORDER) FOR TEMPS/THICKNESSES.

OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS A SHADE EAST IN THIS LAST 00Z RUN…AND HENCE

THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE MIXED PRECIP AXIS FARTHER WEST. HIGHS

WED GENERALLY IN THE L30S INLAND…TO U30S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WED

NIGHT IN THE 20S NW TO MID 30S SE. IGNORED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR

MAXIMA ON THU FORECAST AS THEY ARE TYPICALLY TOO HIGH IN ONGOING

PCPN. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S INLAND…TO

LOW 40S COASTAL AREAS.

 

QPF/SNOWFALL TOTALS…

GENERALLY ACCEPTED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH DID MIX IN A

BLEND OF AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE. QPF RANGE FROM ONE INCH NW

TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS SE.

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 10-14 INCHES OVER THE PIEDMONT

(ALL SNOW) TO 5-10 INCHES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR…WITH 3-5″ FOR

THE NRN NECK/PENINSULA…WESTERN TIDEWATER AND INTR NE NC (LOWER

AMOUNTS IN CNTRL VA DUE TO WINTRY MIX). LITTLE…IF ANY

ACCUMULATION IN S/E TIDEWATER. IN MARYLAND, HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE

IN USUAL SPOTS N/W OF 50 IN WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES…WITH

MIXING RESULTING IN LOWER TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF 13. PLEASE

REFER TO SNOWFALL GRAPHICS FOR MORE INFO.

— End Changed Discussion —

Winter Storm Watch:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

NCZ012-VAZ065-066-070-071-079>081-087>089-092-093-112330-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.140212T1700Z-140213T2300Z/
NORTHAMPTON NC-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MARGARETTSVILLE…SOUTH HILL…
COLONIAL HEIGHTS…RICHMOND…LAWRENCEVILLE…PETERSBURG…
HOPEWELL…EMPORIA…WAKEFIELD…FRANKLIN
1026 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS…PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

* TIMING…LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS…HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET…POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING
  RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
  ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* ACCUMULATIONS…THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW…
  WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
  I- 95. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS…SNOW AND SLEET CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS IT ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS
  EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET…AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE
  LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

February 12-13, 2014: Forecast for Heavy Snow to Mix?

Chance of more than 8" of snow on Day 3, NWS
Chance of more than 8″ of snow on Day 3, NWS

The Eurpoean Weather model has been showing hints of a winter storm since last Thursday (2/6) for the middle of this week. As we are within 48 hours of the storm, several more weather models are on board with a significant storm scenario for Central Virginia. While it is still early to issue snowfall forecasts, certain models have pegged Richmond for as much as 6″ to 25″ of snow. A wide range that can vary based on the track and intensity of the storm.

NAM 12Z 84-Hour Snowfall Accumulation
NAM 12Z 84-Hour Snowfall Accumulation

The NAM model above is likely overdone in snow totals since it is projecting totals for the later hours of its run (shown for the novelity factor only).

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

NCZ012-VAZ065-066-070-071-079>081-087>089-092-093-111200-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.140212T1700Z-140213T2300Z/
NORTHAMPTON NC-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...SOUTH HILL...
COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...
HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...FRANKLIN
410 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN.
  MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN ON THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF
  SNOW...ALONG WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS AS IT ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
  BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER
  LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

February 8, 2014: Light Snow?

NWS Forecast, 2/7/2014
NWS Forecast, 2/7/2014

NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT APPROACHES FM THE WSW
TNGT…THEN TRACKS ACRS THE FA ON SAT. MDL TRENDS CONT TO SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE A HI PROB FOR PCPN…BEGINNING LT TNGT W…AND
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ON SAT. WK SFC LO PRES ONCE AGN PASSES BY WELL
S OF THE RGN ON SAT…WHILE SHEARED OUT S/W ALOFT CROSSES THE
NRN/CNTRL PORTION OF THE FA. WILL CONT W/ IDEA OF POPS FM HI CHC
TO LIKELY…W/ HIGHEST QPF ACRS SE VA/NE NC. P-TYPE WILL BE
CHALLENGING…AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NR/ABV 32F EXCEPT OVER
THE INTERIOR (EARLY) IN THE AM HRS. WILL HAVE MNLY RA FOR SE VA/NE
NC…W/ MIXED P-TYPE IN A NARROW RIBBON (FM ENE TO WSW) IN BETWEEN
THAT RA…AND A PD OF SN ACRS NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PCPN
COVERAGE XPCD TO DECREASE DURG SAT AFTN/EVE. SN ACCUMS ATTM (MNLY
ALG-NW OF A FVX TO SBY LN) LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. OTRWMNLY
CLDY FOR THE DAY…HI TEMPS FM THE U30S ACRS THE N…TO THE M40S
S.

January 28-29, 2014: Observations

Event Updates:

As of 9:00 PM on 1/28, there is approximately 1″ of snow on all surfaces in Church Hill. Temperature continues to slowly fall and is hovering at 15.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Radar at 9 PM on 1/28/2014
Radar at 9 PM on 1/28/2014

Church Hill Storm Observation Summary:
* Place – Time: Church Hill, (1/30/2014)
* Temperature: 12-20, During Event
* Dewpoint: 1-10, During Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A%
* Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Advisory
* Road Conditions: All roads covered during event, primary roads cleared by the morning of 1/22. However, secondary roads were still partially snow covered for 2-3 days after event.
* Precipitation Description: Very small snowflakes. Event remained all snow. Snow was so light that it could be swept off of hard surfaces.
* Total Precipitation: 2 and 1/2” (2.5”) of snow. Liquid equivalent of 0.14” fell during the event, which equates to a snow ration of 1:17.9! 2″ to 3″ fell across metro area. 3.1 inches of snow was reported at the airport. Snowfall totals were heavier towards the Bay and Hampton Roads area (6-10” was common).
* Comments: The snow began around the metro area around 3:30-4 PM. Temperatures dropped during the day (due to the passage of an arctic front) and snowfall was light during the entire event. A low tracking off the NC coast spread precipitation into most of Virginia. Wind during the event, averaging 5 MPH or less, was light. Accumulations were present on most surfaces. Snow was measured in the backyard of the house. Snow continued until about 4 AM on January 29th where the temperature dropped to nearly 10 degrees. By far, one of the coldest snow events I’ve witnessed. There was a 1.5 hour delay for Chesterfield County Government Offices.

Snowfall Totals:

NWS Snowfall Totals for 1/29/2014
NWS Snowfall Totals for 1/29/2014

Videos:

Photos:

January 28-29, 2014: Snow Forecast

A complex system may impact Central Virginia where anything but model consensus can be found. A low pressure developing on the edge of an arctic front will cause widespread snow from southern Texas to the Middle Atlantic. Models have slowly increased precipitation around metro Richmond in the 24-hours leading up to the event. Still, most of the precipitation will likely be south and east of the metro area (VA beach could easily see 6-12″ of snow) which is located closer to the low off the Hatteras coast.

Below are some forecast images from the NWS. The forecast has evolved over the last 2 days from a chance at flurries to around 1-2″ of snow in Metro Richmond.

Snow Forecast from NWS on 1/27/14.
Snow Forecast from NWS on 1/27/14.
NWS Forecast Totals, Updated at 9 PM on 1/28/14.
NWS Forecast Totals, Updated at 9 PM on 1/28/14.

January 21, 2014: Observations

Church Hill Storm Observation Summary:

* Place – Time: Church Hill, 10:00 PM (1/21/2014)
* Temperature: 22-34, During Event
* Dewpoint: 29-33, During Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A%
* Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Watch & Warning
* Road Conditions: All roads covered during event, primary roads cleared by the morning of 1/22. However, secondary roads were still partially snow covered.
* Precipitation Description: Light rain transitioned to snow showers during the overnight hours.
* Total Precipitation: 2 and 3/4” (2.75”) of snow. Liquid equivalent of 0.12” fell during the event, which equates to a snow ration of 1:22.9! 1″ to 3″ fell across metro area. Two (2) inches of snow was reported at the airport, which also set the daily record for snowfall on January 21st. Snowfall totals were heavier towards the Bay and Hampton Roads area.
* Comments: An initial band of snow showers and flurries rolled through the metro area around 11 AM with no accumulation. Dropping temperatures (due to the passage of an arctic front) and snowfall began around 3:30 PM at the Chesterfield Government Complex. Snow turned heavier by 5:30-6 PM. Winds gusts between 25-30 MPH were recorded at the airport during the snow event. By 7 AM on 1/16, snow was still falling at a light rate. Accumulations were present on most surfaces. Snow was measured in the field near the tennis courts at Ethel Bailey Furman Memorial Park. Snow continued until about 2 AM on January 22nd.

Images:

NWS Mesoscale Graphic
NWS Mesoscale Graphic
Radar from the evening of the storm.
Radar from the evening of the storm.

Videos:

Other Resources:

Wx_Gang_Storm_Overview for 1/21/2014

Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia