The Eurpoean Weather model has been showing hints of a winter storm since last Thursday (2/6) for the middle of this week. As we are within 48 hours of the storm, several more weather models are on board with a significant storm scenario for Central Virginia. While it is still early to issue snowfall forecasts, certain models have pegged Richmond for as much as 6″ to 25″ of snow. A wide range that can vary based on the track and intensity of the storm.
The NAM model above is likely overdone in snow totals since it is projecting totals for the later hours of its run (shown for the novelity factor only).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 410 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 NCZ012-VAZ065-066-070-071-079>081-087>089-092-093-111200- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.140212T1700Z-140213T2300Z/ NORTHAMPTON NC-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO- BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY- SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...SOUTH HILL... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG... HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...FRANKLIN 410 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN. MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN ON THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS IT ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.