All posts by Ryan_R

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 20-21, 2011: Forecast *CLOSED*

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The next possible winter weather event for Central Virginia appears to be coming from a low-pressure system that will develop along a cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. As of this morning (1/18/2011), NWS and NBC12 are forecasting primarily rain for this event. Some of the weather models as of noon today are still bullish on pushing snow into the area. Richmond remains close to the 32-degree line. While QPF from this system remains light (around 0.10″), the possibility exists for Central Virginia to see some light snow on the tail end of this event.  As this low hits the coast, there is the possibility that it strengthens and develops into a Miller B storm for the Northeast and New England.

12Z NAM:

12Z GFS

Observation, Statistics/Records

2010 Statistics: Highest 24-Hour Rainfall

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Church Hill: 3.36″

One impressive statistic from the 2010 weather data that was recorded at my house was the highest amount of liquid rainfall accumulating in a 24-hour period. Signaling the end of summer and an extreme drought, my station recorded 3.36″ of rain in a single day. The radar loop from the day is impressive as well. The rain was spawned from the remnants of Nicole and a coastal low.

September 30, 2010 radar

More information on the remnants of Nicole (Wikipedia)

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 18-19, 2011: Forecast *CLOSED*

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Update: 1/17/2011

**While cold air has filtered into place over Central Virginia, it appears that this will primarily be a rain event for tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be a little sleet at the onset of the precipitation, but no accumulation is expected. All eyes are now on the next potential winter storm which may arrive in Virginia by 1/21. **

The possibility of winter weather looks unlikely over the next week to ten days. The next substantial storm on the horizon is slated to cross the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week (January 18-19). Most models currently show a rain solution for this storm as it tracks well west of Central Virginia. One model, the GGEM, shows the possibility for some initial snow/ice at the onset, followed by rain for the duration of the event.

GGEM, 1/13/2011

GFS, 1/13/2011

Video from Event:

Forecast Discussion, Observation, Winter Weather

January 11, 2011: Wx Observations *CLOSED*

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The forecast for tomorrow’s winter storm that is now hammering the southeast has changed substantially in the past few days. Hints of this winter storm were first seen in late December (see Wxrisk.com). About 3-5 days ago, there was the possibility that this storm could drop anywhere from 3-6″ of snow in Central Virginia. As the event comes closer to realization, the models have shifted the development of this low off the Virginia and Delmarva coast. Consequently, Central Virginia is forecast to be sparred the majority of precipitation from this event. The other major change in the forecast is the precipitation type. The development and proximity of the coastal low is projected to turn the snow into sleet and freezing rain for a large portion of Central Virginia tomorrow. Plain old rain may even mix in before the wrap-around moisture turns the precipitation back to snow. This will substantially cut down on any snowfall accumulation tomorrow. The NWS current forecast for “23223″ is for 0.5 – 1″ total of snow and ice. Winter Weather Advisories have also been posted this morning for the majority of Central Virginia in anticipation of the upcoming winter storm. Storm reports will be posted tomorrow morning as the event unfolds.

Current Forecast Maps:

Videos of Event:

Photos of the Event (Church Hill):

Forecast Discussion, Observation, Winter Weather

January 7-8, 2011: Wx Observations *CLOSED*

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An impressive band of moisture has set up over Metro Richmond these evening. An upper level low coming out the great lakes has made spun some moisture over the mountains and we have has some impressive snowfall this evening. Already a dusting of snow is on most surfaces and the snow appears to be sticking around for the next few hours. Maybe 1/2″ to 1″ might be possible?

Radar Loop

Two videos from Church Hill last night:

Forecast Discussion

December 25-26, 2010: Wx Observations *CLOSED*

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What a roller coaster ride this storm event has been! Only 24 hours ago, most of the local meteorologists were calling for a dusting to an inch of snowfall today. The weather models were consistently pushing the system out to sea with little impact on the commonwealth. Late last night, the models took a dramatic shift by pulling the storm back to the coast, supporting the position of the Euro model only two days ago. This looks like a potentially record setting snow storm for the east coast. As of 10:30 AM, the NWS forecast for Richmond is:

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 32. North wind between 8 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

That’s about 2-6″. Other professional meteorologists have us pegged for 6-12″. There has even been mention of 9-15″ in Metro Richmond. Observations will begin this afternoon with photos and videos going up this evening and into tomorrow.

The current radar:

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 25-26, 2010: Wx Event *OPEN*

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The latest computer guidance and models seem to be coming into agreement for a sizable storm for central and southeastern Virginia this weekend. The NWS forecast for the weekend storm is (Richmond Metro):

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The latest 12z GFS is sowing the formation of a costal storm during the day on Saturday:

Stay tuned for further updates.

Update: 12/24/2010

The models have come into general agreement that this storm will take a more easterly path and not create a massive snow storm for central Virginia. Instead, a smaller upper level disturbance from the Midwest will likely swing through tomorrow afternoon (12/25) and tomorrow night to produce some snow showers. Local meteorologists are estimating anywhere from a dusting to an inch. The track of this storm is still uncertain, so it will still bear some watching today and tomorrow. Observation posts will be posted tomorrow if snow looks likely.

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 16-17, 2010: WSW ISSUED

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WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

VAZ048-060>062-065>071-079>082-087>089-161030-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.101216T0900Z-101217T0000Z/
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND...SOUTH HILL...
CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...LAWRENCEVILLE...
PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD
311 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* ICE AMOUNTS...A TRACE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
  POSSIBLE...MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

 

It appears that before the potentially large winter storm this weekend, Richmond is slated for a glancing blow by a system coming out of the Rockies early Thursday into Thursday night. The temperature profiles for the system seem to indicate a snow event for Richmond, but some of the local meteorologists and NWS are calling for some mixing (a changeover to sleet and freezing rain). The NWS is currently expecting 2″-4″ of snow, and we could get as much as 3″-6″ before all is said and done. Mixing issue Thursday evening could limit accumulations. Snow is expected to begin around 9AM tomorrow morning.

Snow Amount Map - TWC

Below is the 00z GFS from 12/15/2010. It shows us in .25-.50 liquid precip, which is roughly 2.5″-5″ of snow.

00Z GFS
18Z NAM

18Z NAM: