The next weather headline coming our way this weekend involves a frontal boundary that will usher in a brief bout of arctic air for Sunday into Monday for Metro Richmond. As the frontal passage comes through, there is a small chance of the rain changing to snow in Central Virginia. It looks unlikely that any accumulating snow will fall from this event. The NWS has us recieving some rain showers and nothing else from the frontal passage. Nonetheless, it is a possible snow event to watch evolve over the next two days. In any case, a windy and winter like day is in store for Sunday (2/12/12).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s been one heck of a winter chasing snow. Now I’m really grasping for straws here, but there might be a possibility of some flurries this evening as the moisture from the system pulls away from the middle atlantic states. I’d rate the chance of seeing some snow this evening in the 5-10% chance.

Is there a viable chance for snow this weekend? Some models seem to be hinting at a colder solution that would allow for this weekend’s storm to end as a period of light sleet and snow. The 12Z NAM grazes the area with 1-2 inches of snow on early Sunday. The 12Z GFS keeps Metro Richmond on the warm side with 850 MB temperatures. The forecast looks anything but certain at this point as the cut-off low from the mid-west drifts towards the mid-atlantic late tomorrow into Sunday.

Current Radar:

Update (2/6/2012):

No snow or flurries appeared this weekend. The moisture raced out of Metro Richmond by 2-3 AM. Sunday remained mostly cloudy. The snow drought continues.

Another fast moving clipper combined with a low-pressure system developing in the lower plains/Tennessee Valley will give the Richmond area a chance of sleet/rain mix this evening into early Saturday morning. The local meteorologists have hinted at this possible scenario for about two days now and have kept it in the forecast.

No accumulating snow is expected at this point. It looks like you will have to go as far north as Maryland (maybe DC/NOVA) to see any appreciable accumulation of snow or ice.

Normally this type of event would not be worth commenting on. However, Richmond has not seen any accumulating snow as of today (1/20/2012) or in any of the previous months of this winter season. Therefore, there is a little excitement in the air to have the possibility of even a small wintry event tonight into tomorrow morning.

NBC12 has also hinted at a small chance of freezing rain tomorrow night (1/21 to 1/22) as another round of precipitation rolls in.

Radar:

The first substantial chance of winter weather might be heading our way tomorrow night. The various models seem to point to an accumulating snow event along the Appalachian mountains. In Richmond, the NWS still has the metro area in 100% rain. Areas like Short Pump and Powhatan have a slight chance of the precipitation changing to snow.

The chance of accumulating snow for Richmond remains very low. However, we could see a rain to snow changeover on the tail end of the precipitation shield. This scenario will likely preclude any meaningful accumulation. It will be worth watching to see how the event pans out for Metro Richmond.

18Z NAM

12/7/2011 Forecast per TWC