Tag Archives: winter weather

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 7, 2014: Wind Chill Advisory

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NWS Forecast with a Low of 9 Degrees (F) for 1/7/14.
NWS Forecast with a Low of 9 Degrees (F) for 1/7/14.

A wind chill advosry is in effect for tonight into tomorrow morning for Central Virginia. The coldest air (for a daytime high) may occur tomorrow since 1996!

From the NWS:

 

 

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

…ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING…

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>083-085-087>090-062215-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WC.Y.0001.140107T0600Z-140107T1700Z/
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-
CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CAMBRIDGE…SALISBURY…CRISFIELD…
PRINCESS ANNE…SNOW HILL…OCEAN CITY…LOUISA…FARMVILLE…
GOOCHLAND…ASHLAND…SOUTH HILL…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…
RICHMOND…TAPPAHANNOCK…LAWRENCEVILLE…PETERSBURG…HOPEWELL…
EMPORIA…WAKEFIELD…WILLIAMSBURG
902 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

…WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST
TUESDAY…

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST
TUESDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARDS: DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO DUE TO TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING: LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: THE COLD TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FROZEN WATER
PIPES AND WILL BE A DANGER TO EXPOSED SKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS…MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

 

.CLIMATE...
VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO WED...

RECORD LOW TEMP TUE JAN 7:

RIC 12/1988
ORF 13/1884
SBY  7/1919
ECG 15/1959
WAL 12/1988

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP TUE JAN 7:

RIC 21/1996
ORF 28/1878
SBY 24/1988
ECG 32/1988
WAL 28/1973

RECORD LOW TEMP WED JAN 8:

RIC -8/1942
ORF 13/1970
SBY -4/1912
ECG 16/1968
WAL 14/1970

THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMP DIDN`T REACH 20 DEGREES F:

RIC 18 DEG F  2/4/1996 (SNOW DEPTH 2 INCHES)
ORF 13 DEG F 1/19/1994 (SNOW DEPTH TRACE)
SBY 18 DEG F 1/10/2004 (SNOW DEPTH 0)
ECG 16 DEG F 1/21/1985
WAL 19 DEG F  2/4/1996 (SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES)

THE LAST TIME WIND CHILLS WERE BELOW ZERO:

RIC 12/20/2004
ORF 12/20/2004
SBY  1/22/2011
Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

December 10, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow

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It looks like another small system will being pushing through Central Virginia tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours. The NWS has the following information:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND, WHICH HAVE
GENERALLY DIMINISHED...LEAVING ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DZ
ACROSS SE TIER OF COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, SOME MID/UPPER DRYING HAS
ENTERED EASTERN WV/WESTERN VA HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT...PRIMARILY WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS STRONGEST OVER
THE WEEKEND.

DID SLOW ONSET OF POP SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR MD ZONES. OVERALL,
MUCH OF PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. LATER TONIGHT...A
VIGOROUS TROUGH (PRESENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS)
WILL REACH THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW -RA TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG
THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. ACCORDINGLY, WL
SHOW INCREASE IN POP LATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (ASIDE FROM THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE) LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE LOW/MID 30S NW WITH SHORT LIVED CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH GENERATES A POWERFUL 180KT (GEOSTROPHIC
WIND) 300MB JET...THAT RACES ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS INDUCES A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS (NAM/GFS) INDICATE A RATHER CLASSIC
SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 600MB. IN ADDITION...MODESTLY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES AND
NEUTRAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY. ALL THIS COMBINED SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
BANDED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST BAND APPEARS TO SET-UP NEAR THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AKQ CWA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE DIFFICULTY CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW (DRIVING SURFACE TEMPS DOWN TO THE WET-BULB...WHICH WL BE
~ 30-32F)...BUT THERE COULD BE A MIX WITH SLEET EARLY DUE TO
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL WARM AIR. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-3IN
ACROSS THE FAR N (LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 4 ARE POSSIBLE)...AND
TAPERING TO AN INCH OR LESS IN VICINITY OF A LINE FROM FVX-RIC-
WAL. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA.

DRIER AIR QUICKLY COMES IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
DRIER BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S NW...TO THE LOW 30S NC
COAST...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR MOST AREAS.

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

VAZ060-061-067>071-078-082-083-085-099-102100-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-
350 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATER TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND
NON-PAVED SURFACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 

Observation, Winter Weather

December 8, 2013: Observations

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Storm Report (Church Hill):

* Place – Time: Church Hill, 12:00 PM (12/9/2013) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 32-34, During Event
* Dewpoint: 31-34, During Event
* Relative Humidity: N/A%
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Advisory
* Road Conditions: All roads remained passable, no accumulation of ice on roadways.
* Precipitation Description: Light rain and snow showers persisted on and off during the afternoon hours.
* Total Precipitation: Trace of sleet. Freezing rain measured at approximately 0.05”. Liquid equivalent of 1.05” fell during the event.
* Comments: A mix of sleet and freezing rain started shortly after 6:30 AM. The sleet lasted for about 20-30 minutes. Freezing rain lasted until 11 AM as temperatures crept above 32 degrees. Precipitation was intermittent throughout the day with different periods of light to heavy rain in the afternoon. Light accumulation of ice was seen on trees, power lines and exposed elevated surfaces, even into the afternoon and evening. Melting of ice started overnight Sunday into Monday. No observed power outages were seen in the neighborhood.

NWS Advisory issued during event:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

430 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

 

VAZ065>068-070-071-081730-

/O.CAN.KAKQ.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131209T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0012.131208T1200Z-131209T0000Z/

MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOUTH HILL…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…

RICHMOND

430 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS

EVENING…

 

* AREAS AFFECTED: INCLUDE MECKLENBURG…LUNENBURG AND NOTTOWAY.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS: A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED ALONG

WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION SLEET.

 

* TIMING: A MIX OF SLEET…AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN

AFTER SUNRISE…THEN CHANGE TO ALL FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE

MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN LATE

THIS AFTERNOON.

 

* TEMPERATURES: 30 TO 33 DEGREES.

 

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY

MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO ICY CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS

AND SIDEWALKS.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED

FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

Photos from Church Hill:

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
515 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                          ICE           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...DORCHESTER COUNTY...
   CAMBRIDGE             0.20   440 PM 12/08  911 CALL CENTER

VIRGINIA

...CAROLINE COUNTY...
   BOWLING GREEN         0.10   838 AM 12/08  PUBLIC

...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY...
   MIDLOTHIAN            0.10   834 AM 12/08  PUBLIC

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   CUMBERLAND            0.50   325 PM 12/08  911 CALL CENTER

...FLUVANNA COUNTY...
   PALMYRA               0.25   345 PM 12/08  911 CALL CENTER

...HANOVER COUNTY...
   ASHLAND               0.10  1229 PM 12/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

...HENRICO COUNTY...
   LAKESIDE              0.10   800 AM 12/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NNE BRIDLEWOOD      0.10  1210 PM 12/08  TRAINED SPOTTER

...LOUISA COUNTY...
   LOUISA                0.10   843 AM 12/08  PUBLIC

...LUNENBURG COUNTY...
   VICTORIA              0.10   320 PM 12/08  911 CALL CENTER

...NOTTOWAY COUNTY...
   CREWE                 0.10   839 AM 12/08  PUBLIC

...PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY...
   FARMVILLE             0.25   300 PM 12/08  911 CALL CENTER

$$

LALEXAND
Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 20-21, 2011: Forecast *CLOSED*

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The next possible winter weather event for Central Virginia appears to be coming from a low-pressure system that will develop along a cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. As of this morning (1/18/2011), NWS and NBC12 are forecasting primarily rain for this event. Some of the weather models as of noon today are still bullish on pushing snow into the area. Richmond remains close to the 32-degree line. While QPF from this system remains light (around 0.10″), the possibility exists for Central Virginia to see some light snow on the tail end of this event.  As this low hits the coast, there is the possibility that it strengthens and develops into a Miller B storm for the Northeast and New England.

12Z NAM:

12Z GFS