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* Place – Time: Church Hill, 11:00 AM (3/7/2013) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 33-37, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 33-36, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: 100%
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Advisory
* Road Conditions: All roads had snow cover during the event. The morning after the event, secondary roads remained mostly clear in the city and south and eastern portions of the metro area. All major roads passable.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes brief periods of heavy snow fell throughout the event.
* Total Precipitation: 1.5″ of snow (unconfirmed due to wet snow ratios and quick melting by the time I got home (1 PM), will use airport’s measurement in lieu of any actual measurements in Church Hill). Liquid Equivalent of 2.25″ fell during the event at my house. Liquid Equivalent of 2.1″ fell during the event at the airport.
* Comments: A rain/snow mix started shortly after 8 AM. The precipitation fell as a moderate rain/snow mix through most of my commute to work. By the time I reached the Courthouse area of Chesterfield, snow was quickly accumulating on all surfaces, even the roadways. Snow was wet and heavy, flakes were incredibly large as well. Reports of thunder snow were reported throughout the metro area in the morning. Snow remained heavy until 9:30 AM and became moderate to light in intensity for the rest of the morning. Snow and rain/snow mix occurred throughout the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. Accumulation of snow essentially stopped around 10 AM as temperatures climbed to 37 and snow began melting. Precipitation was spurred by an upper level low that transferred to a surface low on the Virginia/NC border. The NWS was forecasting little in the way of snow for the metro area and scrambled early in the morning with Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories for the region. Areas in western Chesterfield and Henrico saw upwards of 5” of snow from the event. Areas east and south of town saw much less. The airport reported 1.5” of snow.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
648 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013
MDZ021>023-VAZ060-065>083-085-172000-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T0600Z/
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...
PRINCESS ANNE...FARMVILLE...SOUTH HILL...CREWE...
COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...TAPPAHANNOCK...LAWRENCEVILLE...
PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL
648 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY.
* AREAS AFFECTED: THE VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK AND MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE.
* HAZARDS: SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 4 INCHES.
* TIMING: RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND
BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS TO
OCCUR. SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACTS: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AFTER
SUNSET AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE."
NWS Final Snow TotalsNWS Snow Total Map
My Report (Church Hill):
* Place – Time: Church Hill, 11:00 AM (1/18/2013) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 33-37, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 33-37, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: 100%
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Watch & Warning
* Road Conditions: All roads had snow cover during the event. The morning after the event, secondary roads remained slushy. Most major roads passable.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes brief periods of heavy snow fell throughout the event. I observed thunder snow at the onset of the snow in western Chesterfield County (near St. Francis Hospital).
* Total Precip: 2.0″ of snow. Liquid Equivalent of 0.64″ fell during the event at the airport.
* Comments: A rain/snow mix started shortly after sunset on the 17th. The precipitation fell as light to occasionally moderate snow throughout the evening hours. Snow began to accumulate within one hour of transitioning to snow. The precipitation quickly changed to moderate and heavy snow by 6 PM where local roads began to get covered. One hour of moderate snow was reported in and around RIC airport around 9 PM. The snow began to taper off by 11:00 PM as it transitioned between rain and snow. Snow was very wet, with ratios close to 3.3:1. Precipitation was spurred by an upper level low that tracked up from northern Alabama to off the Virginia coast. This storm came at the end of a long week of rain that occurred each day, starting on 1/14/13. The airport reported 1.6” of snow.
An upper level low riding along a stalled front to the south of Virginia could bring significant snowfall to all of Central Virginia tomorrow night. Hints at the potential for a winter storm were noted earlier in the week in some of the major weather models. Model disagreements were based on the timing of the cold air arrival and how much moisture would overspread into Central Virginia. Both NAM and GFS point to the possibility of significant snowfall amounts for tomorrow night. Current thoughts from Wakefield include:
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW/PV ANOMALY AS IT LIFTS OUT
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WATERS WILL BE NEARLY ONE INCH WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THE
IMPORTANT DGZ. SHARP HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE SFC THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 200+ KT JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN…POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES…OVER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LOCATE OVER THE WRN AND NRN FA…WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
THE UPPER LEVELSHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FA THURSDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT…COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR WORKING INTO THIS
DYNAMIC OF A SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON…FIRST ACROSS THE NW. HAVE GONE UNDER
MODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL/MILD WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.
HOWEVER…STRONG UVM IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR LARGER FLAKES AND
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL HELP SNOW ACCUMULATE REGARDLESS
OF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER THING TO OVERCOME IS LOW
LEVEL TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING…TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
HAVE GONE UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TOMORROW EVENING AS PRECIP
FALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP COOL THE LOW LEVELS. AS
THE LOW PUSHES OUT OVER THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS
NE…COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SW ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS DRY/COLD W/NW FLOW WORKS INTO THE
REGION…PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING…UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NW TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LITTLE…IF ANY…SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
(SREF PROBABILITIES OF >4 INCHES EXCEEDS 50 PCT)…HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IS PRECIP BANDING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE SAT GEO POT VORT INDICATE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BANDING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. GRASSY SURFACES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF…WHICH ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY (850 TEMPS FALL TO -7 TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL OVER 20 M) AND AN EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM REACHING 40 ANY MANY LOCALES. WHILE SKIES WILL FINALLY
CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS…NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH…STRONGER NEAR THE COAST…WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
