The first freezing temperature for the fall of 2013 occurred on November 9 (31.9 in Church Hill). The first freeze for the airport occurred on October 26 with a low of 32.
Category Archives: Forecast Discussion
What do the models say? What are the local mets saying? Discuss it here.
March 24, 2013: Forecast for Rain & Sleet to Snow
This storm was a pleasant early spring surprise since it was totally unexpected for me. I arrived back from a Hawaiian cruise on the March 24th. Josh and I had to drive from Dulles back to Richmond. As we approached Richmond on I-95, the steady rain turned to snow. The snow came down incredibly fast. Unfortunately, I forgot to do an official forecast and observation post for this event, but did take a measurement of 3.75″ at the end of the event. I’ve posted some videos below of the event as well as the NWS graphic depicting area totals.
March 5-6, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow (Epic Snow?)
March 5, 2013: Update
It looks like the impact from this storm is growing less and less…
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA…GENLY
FOLLOWING HPC`S LEAD AND BLENDED SEVERAL OF THE 05/00Z MODELS
INCLUDING THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS DELAYING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW…AND DECREASING SNOW TOTALS IN SOME AREAS.WHAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
W/ THIS UPCOMING EVENT: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ABOUT 5 STD
DEVIATION ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO U COMPONENT OF 850 MB WIND
(I.E. STRONG/ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION
HAS VARIED (GENLY BEING LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION OR
FAR SOUTHERN NJ/PA). THIS TENDS TO BE A STRONG INDICATOR OF A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT ACRS AKQ CWA. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW TRACK…AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDING OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF STRONGEST
FORCING AND ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILL
DRASTICALLY CHANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
FOR NOW…THIS APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER THE FAR NWRN PART OF THE
CWA. THE LAST FACTOR…WHICH WILL BE INHIBITING AT LEAST IN TERMS
OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER…AND FACT
THAT ENTIRE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAIN TUE
NGT/WED MRNG BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. STILL..THINK DYNAMICALLY
DRIVEN COOLING DUE TO INTENSE LIFT AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE WARMTH AT THE SFC. WHEN THIS OCCURS THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN
FROZEN…AND WITH THE STRONG FORCING AND HEAVY PRECIP RATES…SNOW
COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE. WITH THE SFC LO TRENDING NORTH…THE
BEST CHC FOR WARNING–LVL SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER LOUISA AND
FLUVANNA…WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR IN
THE MRNG/MIDDAY HRS WED. FOR RICHMOND METRO…WITH HI LO-LVL
THICKNESSES AND THE H85/H5 LO PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
(INSTEAD OF OFF TO THE SOUTH)…TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY
BE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTN HRS.CONCERNING HEADLINES…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS ACRS THE
PIEDMONT FROM FVX TO LOUISA AND A FEW COUNTIES EAST. WATCH HAS NOT
BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH/EAST…WITH THE RICHMOND AREA MORE LIKELY TO
RECEIVE ONLY 1-2 INCHES. HAVE ADDED DORCHESTER COUNTY TO THE
WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE WHERE 3-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.PRECIP DOES COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY WRAP-AROUND BAND
OF SNOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.AS FAR AS TEMPS…HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S NW TO UPR 40S
SERN COASTAL AREAS. THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
March 4, 2013: Updates
New images and discussion regarding the storm from the NWS:
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA…GENLY
FOLLOWING A SOLUTION BLENDING THE 04/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS.
OVERALL THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH…THE GFS STILL IS A
FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW TRACK SOLUTION TENDING TO BE ON
THE NORTH EDGE OF ALL GUIDANCE. IT WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN IMPACT
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER CENTRAL AND EVEN SOUTHERN VA. NOTE…LATEST 06Z
NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH TO THE GFS…ALTHOUGH DO NOT GENLY FAVOR THE
06/18Z MODEL RUNS.
WHAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS W/
THIS UPCOMING EVENT: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ABOUT 5 STD
DEVIATION ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO U COMPONENT OF 850 MB WIND
(I.E. STRONG/ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION
HAS VARIED (GENLY BEING LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION OR
FAR SOUTHERN NJ/PA). THIS TENDS TO BE A STRONG INDICATOR OF A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT ACRS AKQ CWA. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW TRACK…AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDING OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF STRONGEST FORCING AND
ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILL DRASTICALLY CHANGE
WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS. FOR NOW…AND THIS
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT…THIS APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER NRN 1/2
TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. THE LAST FACTOR…WHICH COULD BE INHIBITING AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER…AND FACT THAT ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR NW
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAIN TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER. STILL..THINK DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN COOLING DUE TO INTENSE
LIFT AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARMTH AT THE
SFC. WHEN THIS OCCURS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO REMAIN FROZEN…AND WITH THE STRONG FORCING AND
HEAVY PRECIP RATES…SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE VERY QUICKLY.
CONCERNING HEADLINES…HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCHACRS THE
PIEDMONT FROM FVX TO LOUISA AND A FEW COUNTIES EAST. THIS IS DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BEGIN WITHIN 48HRS…PRIOR
TO 12Z/WED. FARTHER EAST…THE CHANGEOVER/OR AT LEAST TIME WHEN
SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE IS GENLY EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR NO WATCH AT THIS TIME IN THESE AREAS (LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS). FCST GENLY HAS
SNOW BECOMING MAIN P-TYPE ACRS MUCH OF METRO RICHMOND SOMETIME
BETWEEN 12-18Z/WED…ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SHARP CUTOFF WITHIN THE METRO AREA ITSELF. EXPECT
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/SEVERAL INCHES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL VA AND INTO DORCHESTER MD SOMETIME LATER
WED-WED EVENING.
THE KEY POINT OF THIS EVENT IS THAT THIS STORM WILL CREATE A
HIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
COULD BE OVERCOME BY COOLING FROM ALOFT WITH A PERIOD OF VERY
HEAVY SNOW RESULTING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST AND
NORTH OF A FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-SALISBURY LINE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY…THIS WX SCENARIO IS
HIGHLY VARIABLE AND PINPOINTING SPECIFICS IN
TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
__________________________________________________
March 2, 2013: The weather models have the lower mid-Atlantic pegged for a substantial weather system next week that is spurred by a system dropping through the Rockies, into Kentucky and Tennessee and then rapidly redeveloping off the North Carolina Coast. Being March, temperatures and intensity of the storm are going to be critical in the forecast for any snowfall in Central Virginia. The Euro model has piled up impressive snow amounts for Virginia in the last two days. As always, following the latest trends is going to be key in making a forecast for next week. As of Saturday morning, a HWO has been issued by the NWS in Wakefield:
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO WET SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Accuweather’s image for the upcoming storm:
February 16, 2013: Observations
My Report (Church Hill):
* Place – Time: Church Hill, 11:00 AM (2/17/2013) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 34-38
* Dewpoint: 33-36
* Relative Humidity: 90-95%
* Pressure: 1009 hPa
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Hazardous Weather Outlook
* Road Conditions: All roads remained clear through event.
* Precipitation Description: Light and moderate snow fell throughout the event.
* Total Precip: Trace of snow. Liquid Equivalent of 0.17″ fell during the event at my home.
* Comments: Snow began around 8 AM on the 16th. The precipitation fell as light to very brief periods of moderate snow throughout the morning and afternoon hours. Snow was occasionally mixed with rain in the morning. Surface temperatures precluded any accumulation. The snow began to taper off by 6:00 PM. Snow was wet and flakes were medium sized. The airport reported a trace of snow.
February 16, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow Showers
An arctic cold front will swing through central Virginia tonight and usher in a new round of cold air for the weekend. Along the cold front, a low pressure system may develop during the day on Saturday to bring some light rain and snow showers to the area. Accumulations will likely be light. The system bears watching for some accumulating snowfall.
January 23-24, 2013: Forecast for Flurries
A small chance of a snow shower or flurries is in the forecast for Metro Richmond on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Due to the cold air in place, it will likely be difficult to see precipitation reach the surface. Nonetheless, I’ll keep an eye out for a small accumulation event. More to follow tomorrow.
January 17, 2013: Observations
Video of Event:
NWS forecast for 1/17/2013:
Current snowfall forecast:
Here is the latest warning for Richmond metro.
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 648 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 MDZ021>023-VAZ060-065>083-085-172000- /O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T0600Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG- NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM- KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND- LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...FARMVILLE...SOUTH HILL...CREWE... COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...TAPPAHANNOCK...LAWRENCEVILLE... PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL 648 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK AND MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING: RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE RAPID ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AFTER SUNSET AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE."
My Report (Church Hill):
* Place – Time: Church Hill, 11:00 AM (1/18/2013) *After the Event Update*
* Temperature: 33-37, During Storm Event
* Dewpoint: 33-37, During Storm Event
* Relative Humidity: 100%
* Pressure: N/A
* Trends: N/A
*Winter Weather Watch/Warning/Advisory: Watch & Warning
* Road Conditions: All roads had snow cover during the event. The morning after the event, secondary roads remained slushy. Most major roads passable.
* Precipitation Description: Light, moderate and sometimes brief periods of heavy snow fell throughout the event. I observed thunder snow at the onset of the snow in western Chesterfield County (near St. Francis Hospital).
* Total Precip: 2.0″ of snow. Liquid Equivalent of 0.64″ fell during the event at the airport.
* Comments: A rain/snow mix started shortly after sunset on the 17th. The precipitation fell as light to occasionally moderate snow throughout the evening hours. Snow began to accumulate within one hour of transitioning to snow. The precipitation quickly changed to moderate and heavy snow by 6 PM where local roads began to get covered. One hour of moderate snow was reported in and around RIC airport around 9 PM. The snow began to taper off by 11:00 PM as it transitioned between rain and snow. Snow was very wet, with ratios close to 3.3:1. Precipitation was spurred by an upper level low that tracked up from northern Alabama to off the Virginia coast. This storm came at the end of a long week of rain that occurred each day, starting on 1/14/13. The airport reported 1.6” of snow.
Photo Gallery Link: Forthcoming
Links: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/wx_events/Snow/jan17_2013/
January 17, 2013: Forecast for Rain to Snow
An upper level low riding along a stalled front to the south of Virginia could bring significant snowfall to all of Central Virginia tomorrow night. Hints at the potential for a winter storm were noted earlier in the week in some of the major weather models. Model disagreements were based on the timing of the cold air arrival and how much moisture would overspread into Central Virginia. Both NAM and GFS point to the possibility of significant snowfall amounts for tomorrow night. Current thoughts from Wakefield include:
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO SRN VA IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW/PV ANOMALY AS IT LIFTS OUT
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WATERS WILL BE NEARLY ONE INCH WITH HIGH RH VALUES IN THE
IMPORTANT DGZ. SHARP HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE SFC THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 200+ KT
JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN…POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES…OVER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LOCATE OVER THE WRN AND NRN
FA…WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FA THURSDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT…COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR WORKING INTO THIS
DYNAMIC OF A SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON…FIRST ACROSS THE NW. HAVE GONE UNDER
MODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL/MILD WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.
HOWEVER…STRONG UVM IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR LARGER FLAKES AND
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL HELP SNOW ACCUMULATE REGARDLESS
OF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER THING TO OVERCOME IS LOW
LEVEL TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING…TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
HAVE GONE UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TOMORROW EVENING AS PRECIP
FALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP COOL THE LOW LEVELS. AS
THE LOW PUSHES OUT OVER THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS
NE…COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SW ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS DRY/COLD W/NW FLOW WORKS INTO THE
REGION…PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING…UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NW TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LITTLE…IF ANY…SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
(SREF PROBABILITIES OF >4 INCHES EXCEEDS 50 PCT)…HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IS PRECIP BANDING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE SAT GEO POT VORT INDICATE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BANDING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. GRASSY SURFACES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF…WHICH ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY (850 TEMPS FALL TO -7 TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL OVER 20 M) AND AN EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM REACHING 40 ANY MANY LOCALES. WHILE SKIES WILL FINALLY
CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS…NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH…STRONGER NEAR THE COAST…WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.Some other images of the possible storm:
December 29, 2012: Observations
No signs of winter appeared with this storm system for metro Richmond. Rain began early in the morning and tapered off by 11 AM. About 0.15″ of rain fell during the event with tempratures hovering between 37-39 degrees. Snow fell to the north and west of Richmond, mainly from Charlottesville and DC north.
Signs point to another possible storm system aimed at the area between January 2nd -4th. I’ll post a forecast thread tomorrow to discuss the possibilities.
December 29, 2012: Forecast for Snow to Rain
A rather complex storm system may impact the area on Saturday (December 29, 2012) that could bring a mixed bag of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. However, there is a chance of snow for the area, as noted in the current NWS forecast:
If this event pans out, this would be our first observation of snow for the season. It could also be our first chance for accumulating snow as well. More discussion about this event is detailed below in the NWS extended discussion:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT
SLACKENS…ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BREEZY ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE…HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY LATER
FRI AND THE REGION WILL RESIDE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ONCE AGAIN
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER FRI
MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FRI.THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF COAST STATES FRI NIGHT
AND TRACK NE TWD THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. MID-
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE INITIALLY SO THE SFC LOW
DOES NOT INTENSIFY THAT MUCH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER…OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SW TO NE EARLY SAT MORNING. WHILE THERE IS THE LACK OF A
COLD AIR WEDGE…TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING NEAR
FREEZING BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AND PREVENT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
COOLING FURTHER. WITH THIS IN MIND…PRECIP MAY START AS ALL SNOW
IN FAR NW ZONES WITH A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE TO ALL RAIN OVER
SE AREAS. IT DOES LOOK RATHER LIGHT INITIALLY SO ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LIGHT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS TEMPS WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING…BUT HAVE GONE BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS…MAINLY 40-45…UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FAR SE
VA/NE NC.THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FCST COMES SAT NIGHT…HOW FAST DOES
COLDER AIR COME IN FROM THE NW AND HOW RAPIDLY DOES THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFY? NOTE THAT LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SFC LOW AND KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO MORE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TRACK WOULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MAINLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS
IS WEAKER/SLOWER TO BRING IN COLD AIR…AND THE SFC LOW TRACKS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST W/ LITTLE MORE THAN A SMALL CHC FOR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SAT EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE.
THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE GFS TRACK SO THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING…SO FCST WILL
TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER SCENARIO.
GRIDDED FCST HAS CHANGEOVER BY 00Z NW…TO THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT…WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 1295 M 1000-850 THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE ECMWF.