Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

What do the models say? What are the local mets saying? Discuss it here.

March 1, 2015: Ice to Rain?

March 1, 2015 Ryan_R

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
532 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

VAZ070>076-079-080-083-011845-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-150301T2100Z/
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-NEW KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...
TAPPAHANNOCK...LAWRENCEVILLE
532 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON.

* AREAS AFFECTED: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS: PRIMARILY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS: LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. A TRACE TO LESS
  THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TEMPERATURES: STARTING IN THE MID 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...
  THEN RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET BECOMING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  LATER THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICE COVERED ROADS...BRIDGES
  AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion

February 26, 2015: Snow from Southern Slider?

February 24, 2015 Ryan_R

A moderate intensity storm system will be brushing central Virginia late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A system rounding the corner of a fresh arctic plunge on the east coast will skirt from the Gulf Coast across the Carolinas and bring a snow event that ranges from 1-4 inches in central Virginia to almost a foot in Hampton Roads. Current forecast and trends are posted below.

Update on 2/25/15:

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082-083-085-251730-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FARMVILLE…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…
RICHMOND
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING
METRO RICHMOND.

* HAZARDS: ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING…AND
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING…WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 7 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

——————————————————————————–

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
553 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082>086-099-261100-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-ACCOMACK-
553 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA…EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA…SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA…THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA…THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA…THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

——————————————————————————–

——————————————————————————–

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082-083-085-251730-
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FARMVILLE…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…
RICHMOND
430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INCLUDING
METRO RICHMOND.

* HAZARDS: ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING…AND
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING…WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 7 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

2/25/2015: Evening Update

Forecast models and the local stations have been increasing totals throughout the day. Storm totals range from 4-6 (NWS), 4-8 (NBC12), 4-8 (WxRisk) to 5-10 (ABC8). The NWS graphic is posted below. Of course, a Winter Storm Warning is now in effect:

NWS Snow Forecast, 2.25.15 (Evening) — NWS Snow Forecast, 2/25/15 (Evening)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VAZ060-061-067>073-078-082>086-260415-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
/O.COR.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.150226T0000Z-150226T1800Z/
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...
RICHMOND
256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
  THE METRO RICHMOND AREA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
  OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
  AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW
  SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
  ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER 10 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

February 16-17, 2015: Southern Slider Storm?

February 15, 2015 Ryan_R

It appears that a potentially potent system will develop in the lower Midwest and slide east Monday, impacting Richmond from Monday night into Tuesday morning. As of Sunday morning, no watches or warnings are posted for the Wakefield area. Models are already depicting heavy snowfall totals for central Virginia, with 6″ or more of snow being depicted. TWC and Channel 12 are already saying that a 8-12″ storm could be possible. TWC has named the storm “Octavia”.

Update: Afternoon of 2/15/2015

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

VAZ048-049-060>064-067>074-080>083-160545-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.150216T2100Z-150217T1700Z/
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-
CAROLINE-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND...
ASHLAND...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS...RICHMOND...TAPPAHANNOCK...
PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL
440 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

* AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATION: SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
  INCHES. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT.

* TEMPERATURES: UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.

* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN VIRGINIA
  PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE INTERSTATE 95
  CORRIDOR BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
  NIGHT AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
  HAZARDOUS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. EVEN PRIMARY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS
  WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW COVERED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

January 26, 2015: Snow from a Manitoba Mauler?

January 24, 2015 Ryan_R

A potent upper level system originating from Manitoba may bring the first accumulating snowfall to Metro Richmond on Monday into Monday night. The NWS service seems to think that there could be some accumulating snow.

520 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND…CENTRAL VIRGINIA…EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA…SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA…THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA…THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA…THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA…THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
(1/25/15): NWS HWO - RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY EVENING...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

Forecast Discussion

January 14, 2015: Light Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain

January 13, 2015 Ryan_R

A quick moving storm system may provide some overnight snow, sleet and freezing rain in Metro Richmond. This appears to be a very low-impact storm in terms of accumulation. I’ll update any accumulations tomorrow afternoon. As of the time of this posting, a trace amount (0.01″) of freezing rain has accumulated.

NWS Forecast discussion:

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 140257
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING…TRACKS
NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK…BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
LATE THIS EVENG…INITIAL WEAK SHRTWV/LIFT IN SW FLO ALOFT WAS
PRODUCING MAINLY -RA…WITH PATCHY -IP AND -ZR ACRS SE VA AND NE
NC. BUT…NEXT STRONGER SHRTWV/ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION/PCPN AREA
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVR CNTRL/ERN NC…WILL LIFT NE INTO AND ACRS
THE REGION OVRNGT INTO MIDDAY WED. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND 00Z WAL
SOUNDING…HAVE ADDED SLEET TO THE VA ERN SHR COUNTIES FOR OVRNGT
INTO WED MORNG. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FOCUS TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE FL COAST
TONIGHT THAT TRACKS NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON WED. THE
INTERACTION BTWN COLD/DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH AND AN INFLUX OF MORE
MOIST/WARM AIR FROM THE SE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

AFTER EVALUATING CURRENT WX FEATURES/OBS VS 12Z MODEL DATA…HAVE
DETERMINED THAT THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS IS ALSO THE
PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE BY WPC AND IS REFLECTED IN THEIR QPF
ANALYSIS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP A JET STREAK ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT…SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
WED. WITH THE JET STAYING FARTHER SOUTH…THE REMNANT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT (CURRENTLY AROUND 150-250 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST) IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH ESE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS WILL KEEP
INCOMING PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS (60-100 PERCENT
POPS) WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER INLAND (15-50 PERCENT POPS) AS THE
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER STAYS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SOUNDING AND CROSS SECTION ANALYSES KEEPS AREAS WITHIN
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY INTACT. FOR AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT
WINTER WX ADVISORY…PRECIP WILL START AS ALL RAIN AND THEN
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT SLEET (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN)
LATE WED MORNING INTO AFTN. THE MAIN IMPACT TIMING OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 4-10 AM EARLY WED MORNING. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING…ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
OVERPASSES. SEE WBCWSWAKQ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND UPDATES.

NORTHWEST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA…A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET IS EXPECTED AS LIQUID PRECIP OVERRUNS THE COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE SFC. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT MORE SLEET
THAN SNOW SHOULD FALL SINCE THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT OR AMPLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW.
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT…LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD AND LESS THAN ONE INCH OVERALL. A DEFORMATION
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE CENTERED ON 12Z…WHICH
MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW/SLEET BTWN 4-7 AM
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS POSSIBLE BURST SHOULD STILL AMOUNT TO
ONE HALF INCH OR LESS.

AT THE COAST…PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN SINCE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THE SFC. HOWEVER…WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
DEWPOINTS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIDEWATER AND NE NC AREAS
(AWAY FROM THE OCEAN AND ALBEMARLE SOUND). IF THEY DROP INTO THE MID
20S…THIS WILL CAUSE WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
AND THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THE TIME TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING WITHIN THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FOR ALL AREAS…PRECIPITATION EXITS THE COAST LATE WED AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS FROM THE VA EASTERN
SHORE TO THE TIDEWATER AREA TO COASTAL NE NC…PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET. THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL
AREAS WILL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE COASTAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TRACKS FARTHER NE OUT TO SEA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL NICELY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS CLEARED DURING THE
DAY…BUT HOW FAR THEY DROP WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE INCOMING
CLOUDS FROM THE SW. LOWS WILL BE EVEN MORE TRICKY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES
STEADY WITH SLOW FALLS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEWPOINTS. FOR NOW…LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH TO
UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S SOUTH (35-40 SE COAST). HIGHS WED WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY AS TEMPS SHOULD RISE SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER PRECIP COMES TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTN. HIGHS WED GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
30S (40-45 SE COAST). CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY…HOWEVER LIGHT NORTH WINDS
AND LINGERING EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM RECENT PRECIP SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO LOW-MID 30S SE.

Forecast Discussion, Observation

November 26, 2014: Rain to Snow?

November 24, 2014 Ryan_R

A low-pressure system is expected to develop off the Florida coast Tuesday that will run up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday, causing a wide variety of precipitation types in Virginia. The precipitation could end as a period of rain/snow or even snow. At this point, there is no expected accumulation.

Observation Update: A changeover to some snow and rain occurred for about an hour on 11/26/14 from 3-4 PM. No measurable precipitation fell.

Forecast Discussion, Observation

First Freeze of 2014 Fall Season

November 13, 2014 Ryan_R

The first freezing temperature for the fall of 2014 occurred on November 3 (32.8 in Church Hill). The first freeze for the airport occurred on November 3 with a low of 30.

Forecast Discussion, Observation

November 13, 2014: Rain to Snow?

November 13, 2014 Ryan_R

A quick batch of rain, mixed with sleet and some snow, came in behind an arctic front during the evening hours. No accumulation was observed. This serves as the first wintry precipitation observed for the 2014-2015 winter season.

Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

March 25, 2014: Snow to Rain, then Snow?

March 24, 2014 Ryan_R Leave a comment

An impressive low-pressure system will develop off the Georgia coast tomorrow morning and race northeastward towards New England. The track of this storm will situate the brunt of its precipitation offshore. However, a period of light snow tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening may give Central Virginia a light dusting of snow.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

628 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

VAZ060-064>086-251030-

PRINCE EDWARD-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-

POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-

WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-

PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-

628 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA…EAST

CENTRAL VIRGINIA…SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA…THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF

VIRGINIA…THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF

CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND

INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON

TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY

MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AS

COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS

POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION…GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH WILL

DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING

WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RVAWX.com

Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

March 1, 2015: Ice to Rain?

February 26, 2015: Snow from Southern Slider?

February 16-17, 2015: Southern Slider Storm?

Winter Storm Watch

January 26, 2015: Snow from a Manitoba Mauler?

January 14, 2015: Light Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain

November 26, 2014: Rain to Snow?

First Freeze of 2014 Fall Season

November 13, 2014: Rain to Snow?

March 25, 2014: Snow to Rain, then Snow?

March 17, 2014: Rain to Snow?

Current & Historical Weather Events in Richmond, Virginia