![\"NWS](\"https:\/\/richmondcitywatch.com\/rvawx_test\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/totalsnow.png\")
<\/a> <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n NWS Forecast Discussion:<\/p>\n .NEAR TERM \/THROUGH THURSDAY\/…<\/p>\n UPDATED AT 11AM… OTHERWISE…PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND UPSTREAM<\/a> SFC<\/a> EMPHASIS STILL REMAINS ON THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS HEAVY SNOWFALL IS .PREV DISCUSSION… OVERVIEW… PRECIPITATION… CHALLENGING FCST<\/a> WRT PINNING DOWN SNOW AMTS…AND EXACTLY WHEN TEMPERATURES\/TIMING THE CHANGEOVER… THINKING IS FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HVY<\/a> SNOW BTWN<\/a> 00Z-06Z AS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…TYPICAL MID-ATLANTIC EVENT ACROSS THE THURSDAY… For posterity sake, here is the latest forecast for downtown Richmond related to tonight’s snowfall. NWS Forecast Discussion: .NEAR TERM \/THROUGH THURSDAY\/… — Changed Discussion — UPDATED AT 11AM… BROAD AREA OF WINTRY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE HAS LIFTED NWD INTO SRN NC AS OF 11 AM. 12\/12Z KMHX SOUNDINGS … Continue reading February 13-14, 2014: Day of Event NWS Forecast<\/span> <\/a><\/a>
\nBROAD AREA OF WINTRY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
\nPRESSURE HAS LIFTED NWD<\/a> INTO SRN<\/a> NC<\/a> AS OF 11 AM. 12\/12Z KMHX
\nSOUNDINGS SHOWS VERY MOIST PROFILE…EXCEPT A NARROW DRY LAYER
\nBETWEEN 950-900MB. EXPECT THIS DRY LAYER TO BECOME OVERWHELMED
\nRATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS OVERRUNNING<\/a> MOISTURE<\/a> SURGES NWD<\/a>.
\nHAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED POP<\/a> GRIDS…ALTHOUGH TRENDS INDICATE
\nTHE PRECIP MAY MOVE IN SLIGHTLY FASTER.<\/p>\n
\nOBSERVATIONS…WILL BEGIN TO TREND THE CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY
\nWARMER DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE H85 LOW AND THE WARM NOSE. THE
\nRESULT WILL PUSH THE MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WWD WITH AN INCREASING
\nRISK OF ACCUMULATING ICE OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH
\nCENTRAL VA (ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR). THIS
\nWILL ALSO IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMULATIONS
\n(PERHAPS 4-8 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF RICHMOND). THERMAL<\/a>
\nPROFILES SUGGEST A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT
\nBEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL WAIT TO
\nUPDATE SNOW\/QPF<\/a>\/WX<\/a> FORECAST UNTIL ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE COMES
\nIN…BUT DO ANTICIPATE A SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH WINTRY PRECIP.<\/p>\n
\nEXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE SRN<\/a> LOCAL AREA. FOR MORE
\nINFORMATION…PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.<\/p>\n
\nLATEST WX<\/a> ANALYSIS FEATURES STATIONARY FRONT<\/a> ALONG THE GULF COAST
\nTHIS MORNING, WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
\nFRONT<\/a> JUST OFF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. TO THE NORTH, ~1037MB SFC<\/a>
\nHIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND IS RIDGING DOWN
\nTHE LEE<\/a> SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WV<\/a>\/IR<\/a> SAT<\/a> SHOWING OVERRUNNING<\/a>
\nMSTR<\/a> PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING…WITH ONLY A
\nSHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS<\/a> APPROACHING FROM THE SW.<\/p>\n
\nHIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AKQ
\nCWA<\/a> TODAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHAMPTON
\nNC<\/a>\/GREENSVILLE\/SUSSEX…ALONG WITH INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNINGS
\nFOR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA…VA NORTHERN NECK AND DORCHESTER
\nCOUNTY MD. SEE WBCWSWAKQ FOR LATEST INFO.<\/p>\n
\nEARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR<\/a> MOSAIC SHOWS THAT SWATH OF PCPN<\/a>
\nALREADY PUSHING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AT SUNRISE.
\nPRECIP CHCS QUICKLY INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL<\/a> FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
\nMID-LATE AFTN<\/a> \/JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FAR NORTH\/. THICKNESSES
\nSUGGEST PCPN<\/a> STARTS OFF AS SNOW, THEN BECOMES A MIXTURE OF PCPN<\/a>
\nACROSS SERN AREAS WITH SERN COASTAL AREAS GOING OVER TO RAIN BY
\n00Z. HIGHS L-M30S EXCEPT M-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.<\/p>\n
\nTHE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS. OVERALL, STILL EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND TO
\nTHE WEST OF I-95 SHOULD BE SEEING MOST SIG SNOW THROUGH THU
\nMORNING. HOWEVER, FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXPECT “THE BIG SHOW” TO
\nBE WITH INITIAL SLUG OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN<\/a> TONIGHT. 00Z\/12
\nGFS<\/a> FEATURES A NARROW STRIP OF NEGATIVE EPV<\/a> AT H6-7 LATE
\nTONIGHT\/ERY THU MORNING JUST SE OF RIC METRO<\/a> (FGEN BAND ORIENTED
\nALONG NORTH CWA<\/a> BORDER). MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CONVECTIVE
\nPROCESSES APPEAR MORE SLANTWISE THAN UPRIGHT FOR TSSN (UPRIGHT
\nINSTABILITY<\/a> BEING THE MORE IDEAL). STILL, NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE
\nQUESTION FOR A PERIOD OF THUNDER<\/a> SNOW WITH THAT FGEN BAND LATE
\nTHIS EVENING…AND HV<\/a> ADDED HVY<\/a> SNOW WORDING EARLY TONIGHT TO
\nCONVEY QUICK RAMP UP TO HVY<\/a> PCPN<\/a> COINCIDING WITH ONSET OF EVENING
\nRUSH HOUR.<\/p>\n
\nWHILE “BIG SHOW” WL<\/a> COME THIS EVENING, BUT BIGGEST FORECAST
\nCHALLENGE COMES OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND
\nINTO THU AFTN<\/a>. THANKS TO THE HIGH RETREATING OVER NORTHERN
\nNE…SYNOPTIC SETUP\/CLIMO<\/a> DON`T FAVOR COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
\nAS LONG AS IT WOULD IF BETTER BLOCKING REGIME WERE IN PLACE. USED
\nA GFS<\/a>\/EC\/SREF BLEND FOR QPF<\/a>\/THICKNESSES\/TIMING. THIS BLEND IS A
\nHAIR WARMER THAN THE CMC…BUT A BIT COOLER THAN THE PRVS
\nFORECAST. EC\/GFS<\/a> BLEND WAS USED FOR SFC<\/a> LOW TRACK, WHICH IS JUST A
\nBIT EAST OF WPC TRACK. QPF<\/a> GENERALLY ~1″ NORTH TO AN INCH AND ONE
\nHALF ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES.<\/p>\n
\nACROSS MOST OF THE FA<\/a> NW OF A EMPORIA- WAKEFIELD- NEWPORT NEWS-
\nSALISBURY LINE. LOW PRES<\/a> APPROACHES CAPE<\/a> HAT AFTER 06Z…THICKNESSES
\nSUGGEST ENUF OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT TO INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO A
\nMIXED BAG OF PCPN<\/a> MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A I85-I95 LINE WITH MOST
\nAREAS E OF I95 GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE. APPEARS NWRN MOST
\nCOUNTYS STAY SNOW THRU THE EVENT WITH THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS
\nTHERE. A TRANSITION OVER TO A MIXED BAG OF PCPN<\/a> WITH AREAS E\/SE OF
\nI95 GOING OVER TO RAIN. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
\nSLEET… THUS SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OR SO PSBL<\/a>.
\nLOWS 25-30 WEST OF CHES BAY AND LWR<\/a> MD ERN SHORE…RANGING TO
\nM-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.<\/p>\n
\nAKQ CWA<\/a>. GRADIENT<\/a> EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS HIGHEST
\nACROSS THE NW TIER OF THE WARNING<\/a> AREA… WITH 10-12+” OF SNOW A
\nGOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF US 360 (CREWE\/FVX ON NW). A PERIOD OF
\nSLEET\/SNOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMS<\/a> ACROSS THE WEST
\nEND WITH ACCUMS<\/a> IN THE 6-10 RANGE. MORE MIXING (AND SOME FZRA)
\nSHOULD KEEP TRI-CITIES AREA IN 4-8 RANGE. 2-4 ACRS<\/a> HAMPTON ROADS
\n(HENCE THE WINTER WX<\/a> ADVY<\/a> FOR WESTERN TIDEWATER). WHILE WE HV<\/a>
\nSKIPPED WINTER WX<\/a> ADVY<\/a> FOR SOUTHERN TIDEWATER\/COASTAL NE
\nNC<\/a>…EXPECT A LIGHT SNOW\/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
\nRA<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\nMIXED PCPN<\/a> CONTS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. CAA<\/a> ON BACK SIDE
\nOF LOW COMBINED WITH A PRONOUNCED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE<\/a> RESULTS IN
\nTHE PCPN<\/a> TURNING BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES
\nCRASH TOWARD THE COAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY<\/a>
\nDURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN NECK\/ERN SHORE.
\nHIGHS M-U30S EXCEPT NR<\/a> 40 SERN COASTAL AREAS.<\/p>\n