![\"NWS](\"https:\/\/richmondcitywatch.com\/rvawx_test\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/totalsnow_02.11.14_01.png\")
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NWS Forecast Discussion:<\/strong><\/p>\n .SHORT TERM \/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT\/…<\/p>\n — Changed Discussion —<\/p>\n SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM PRIMED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE<\/p>\n WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY…<\/p>\n <\/p>\n OVERVIEW…<\/p>\n MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AS AFOREMENTIONED NRN AND SRN<\/a><\/p>\n STREAM ENERGY WL<\/a> PHASE INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE<\/a> OVER THE GULF STATES<\/p>\n WED\/WED NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED AS<\/p>\n THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CYCLOGENESIS<\/a> IS EXPECTED TO<\/p>\n OCCUR OVER THE NERN GULF WED PM, AS AMPLIFYING FLOW<\/a> BEGINS TO LIFT<\/p>\n MOISTURE<\/a> NWD<\/a>. SFC<\/a> HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO<\/p>\n RETREAT…BUT WILL REMAIN RIDGED DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VA.<\/p>\n STRONG SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE FROM THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE<\/a>…FURTHER<\/p>\n ENHANCING THE FLOW<\/a> OVER THE SE, WHICH WILL SERVE TO EJECT THE<\/p>\n SHORTWAVE<\/a> NE. A WINTER STORM WATCH<\/a> REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA<\/a><\/p>\n WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIDEWATER AND NE NC<\/a>. IF CURRENT<\/p>\n TRENDS HOLD WITH 12Z SUITE, UPGRADES TO WARNINGS\/ADVISORIES WOULD<\/p>\n BE NEEDED TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MANY FACETS TO THIS EVENT…WHICH<\/p>\n BREAK DOWN AS FOLLOWS:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n PRECIPITATION…<\/p>\n MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED ONSET OF PCPN<\/a> BY A FEW HOURS, BUT<\/p>\n GIVEN THAT WAA<\/a> PRECIP\/OVERRUNNING<\/a> IS OFTEN REALIZED QUICKER THAN<\/p>\n MODELS INDICATE, DID NOT CHANGE ONSET TIMING FROM PREVIOUS<\/p>\n FORECAST. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC<\/a><\/p>\n LOW…LIFTING IT ALONG THE SE COAST LATE WED TO JUST OFFSHORE LATE<\/p>\n WED NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. 11\/00Z ECMWF<\/a> TRACKS THE LOW ALONG<\/p>\n THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO SE VA\/NE NC<\/a> THU MORNING.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n CHC<\/a> POP<\/a> WED MORNING\/AFTN<\/a> RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL<\/a> POPS<\/a> WED AFTN<\/a>\/NIGHT<\/p>\n AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE<\/a> AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE DYNAMICAL<\/p>\n FORCING FOR ASCENT (STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT) OVER THE MID-<\/p>\n ATLANTIC. STRONG HEIGHT<\/a> FALLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG Q-VECTOR<\/p>\n CONVERGENCE<\/a>\/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE REGION (STRONGEST<\/p>\n BETWEEN H6-7). THIS RESULTS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIP<\/p>\n UNDERNEATH THIS BANDING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL SNOW FOR ALL BUT<\/p>\n FAR SE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN…POSSIBLY A BRIEF<\/p>\n PERIOD OF SLEET AS LAYER MOISTENING ENSUES. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST<\/p>\n SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SFC<\/a> LOW<\/p>\n APPROACHES COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE SOUTH, AND WARM AIR MOVING IN<\/p>\n ALOFT SHOULD START MIXING IN SOME SLEET, EVENTUALLY CHANGING THE<\/p>\n SNOW OVER TO SLEET OR R<\/a>\/ZR<\/a> PER BUFR SOUNDINGS. PRECIP WILL BEGIN<\/p>\n TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN OVER THE SE…BUT REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER<\/p>\n THE PIEDMONT. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO<\/p>\n EAST-CENTRAL VA (MAINLY I-95 EAST) AS A WARM NOSE WARMS TEMPS TO<\/p>\n ~2-4C BTWN<\/a> 950 AND 850MB. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF<\/p>\n SNOW\/SLEET\/RAIN\/FREEZING RAIN. STILL TOO EARLY TO IRON OUT EXACT<\/p>\n PTYPES IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE…BUT IT SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE THAT<\/p>\n THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATING ICE ON TOP OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW<\/p>\n OVER CNTRL<\/a> VA. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUNCH INTO THE SE AS THE LOW<\/p>\n LOCATES JUST OFF THE VA COAST THU MORNING, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY<\/p>\n TURN INTO JUST LGT<\/a> RA<\/a>\/DZ<\/a> ACROSS THE SE AS MOISTURE<\/a> ALOFT SLACKENS.<\/p>\n MEANWHILE, MOISTURE<\/a> AXIS WILL LOCATE FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA<\/p>\n AND THE MD ERN SHORE. MODELS INDICATE STRONG DYNAMICS<\/a> IN THIS<\/p>\n MOISTURE<\/a> AXIS WITH STRONG LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH LEVEL. MODEL GEO<\/p>\n POT VORT IS ALSO NEGATIVE IN THIS REGION…WHICH ALSO PORTENDS TO<\/p>\n POSSIBLY ENHANCING BANDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WILL MAINTAIN<\/p>\n LIKELY<\/a> POPS<\/a> ACROSS THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON AS THE PV ANOMALY<\/a><\/p>\n CATCHES UP WITH THE LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO OCCLUDE AND<\/p>\n SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA AS TEMPS<\/p>\n MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN…BUT DYNAMIC COOLING MAY TRANSITION<\/p>\n IT BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PCPN<\/a> TAPERS OFF.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n TEMPERATURE…<\/p>\n OBVIOUSLY DEPENDANT ON EXACT TRACK. USED A BLENDED SOLUTION FROM THE<\/p>\n ECMWF<\/a>\/CMC\/NAM<\/a> (BLENDED IN THAT ORDER) FOR TEMPS\/THICKNESSES.<\/p>\n OPERATIONAL ECMWF<\/a> WAS A SHADE EAST IN THIS LAST 00Z RUN…AND HENCE<\/p>\n THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE MIXED PRECIP AXIS FARTHER WEST. HIGHS<\/p>\n WED GENERALLY IN THE L30S INLAND…TO U30S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WED<\/p>\n NIGHT IN THE 20S NW TO MID 30S SE. IGNORED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR<\/p>\n MAXIMA ON THU FORECAST AS THEY ARE TYPICALLY TOO HIGH IN ONGOING<\/p>\n PCPN<\/a>. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S INLAND…TO<\/p>\n LOW 40S COASTAL AREAS.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n QPF<\/a>\/SNOWFALL TOTALS…<\/p>\n GENERALLY ACCEPTED WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF<\/a> AMOUNTS, THOUGH DID MIX IN A<\/p>\n BLEND OF AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE. QPF<\/a> RANGE FROM ONE INCH NW<\/p>\n TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS SE.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 10-14 INCHES OVER THE PIEDMONT<\/p>\n (ALL SNOW) TO 5-10 INCHES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR…WITH 3-5″ FOR<\/p>\n THE NRN NECK\/PENINSULA…WESTERN TIDEWATER AND INTR NE NC<\/a> (LOWER<\/p>\n AMOUNTS IN CNTRL<\/a> VA DUE TO WINTRY MIX). LITTLE…IF ANY<\/p>\n ACCUMULATION IN S\/E TIDEWATER. IN MARYLAND, HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE<\/p>\n IN USUAL SPOTS N\/W OF 50 IN WICOMICO\/DORCHESTER COUNTIES…WITH<\/p>\n MIXING RESULTING IN LOWER TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF 13. PLEASE<\/p>\n REFER TO SNOWFALL GRAPHICS FOR MORE INFO.<\/p>\n — End Changed Discussion —<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Winter Storm Watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NCZ012-VAZ065-066-070-071-079>081-087>089-092-093-112330- …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * LOCATIONS…PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.<\/p>\n * TIMING…LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.<\/p>\n * HAZARDS…HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET…POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING * ACCUMULATIONS…THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW… * IMPACTS…SNOW AND SLEET CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS PRECAUTIONARY\/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…<\/p>\n A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT Another 24 hours has passed and models still trending towards a complex weather system impacting the area tomorrow into Thursday morning. Below are some graphics on the storm system. In addition, language for the winter storm watch is also posted. NWS Forecast Discussion: .SHORT TERM \/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT\/… — Changed Discussion — SIGNIFICANT … Continue reading February 12-13, 2014: Heavy Snow from Miller A?<\/span>
\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
\n1026 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014<\/p>\n
\n\/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.140212T1700Z-140213T2300Z\/
\nNORTHAMPTON NC-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
\nBRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
\nSOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
\nINCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MARGARETTSVILLE…SOUTH HILL…
\nCOLONIAL HEIGHTS…RICHMOND…LAWRENCEVILLE…PETERSBURG…
\nHOPEWELL…EMPORIA…WAKEFIELD…FRANKLIN
\n1026 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014<\/p>\n
\nTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…<\/p>\n
\nTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.<\/p>\n
\n\u00a0 RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
\n\u00a0 ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATE
\n\u00a0 WEDNESDAY NIGHT<\/p>\n
\n\u00a0 WITH HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
\n\u00a0 I- 95. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.<\/p>\n
\n\u00a0 TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS IT ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS
\n\u00a0 EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET…AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE
\n\u00a0 LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.<\/p>\n
\nSNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
\nCONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"