<\/p>\n

March 5, 2013: Update<\/p>\n

It looks like the impact from this storm is growing less and less…<\/p>\n

.SHORT TERM \/6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY\/…
\nFOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA…GENLY
\nFOLLOWING HPC<\/a>`S LEAD AND BLENDED SEVERAL OF THE 05\/00Z MODELS
\nINCLUDING THE NAM<\/a>\/ECMWF<\/a>\/GFS<\/a>. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
\nPACKAGE IS DELAYING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN\/SNOW TO
\nSNOW…AND DECREASING SNOW TOTALS IN SOME AREAS.<\/p>\n

WHAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
\nW\/ THIS UPCOMING EVENT: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ABOUT 5 STD
\nDEVIATION ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO U COMPONENT OF 850 MB<\/a> WIND
\n(I.E. STRONG\/ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION
\nHAS VARIED (GENLY BEING LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION OR
\nFAR SOUTHERN NJ\/PA). THIS TENDS TO BE A STRONG INDICATOR OF A
\nSIGNIFICANT EVENT ACRS<\/a> AKQ CWA<\/a>. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE VERY
\nIMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
\nLOW TRACK…AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDING OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST SNOW
\nAMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF STRONGEST
\nFORCING AND ANY DEVIATION IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILL
\nDRASTICALLY CHANGE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
\nFOR NOW…THIS APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER THE FAR NWRN PART OF THE
\nCWA<\/a>. THE LAST FACTOR…WHICH WILL BE INHIBITING AT LEAST IN TERMS
\nOF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER<\/a>…AND FACT
\nTHAT ENTIRE FA<\/a> WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAIN TUE
\nNGT<\/a>\/WED MRNG<\/a> BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. STILL..THINK DYNAMICALLY
\nDRIVEN COOLING DUE TO INTENSE LIFT AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ABLE
\nTO OVERCOME THE WARMTH AT THE SFC<\/a>. WHEN THIS OCCURS THE LOWER
\nLEVELS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN
\nFROZEN…AND WITH THE STRONG FORCING AND HEAVY PRECIP RATES…SNOW
\nCOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE. WITH THE SFC<\/a> LO TRENDING NORTH…THE
\nBEST CHC<\/a> FOR WARNING<\/a>–LVL<\/a> SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER LOUISA AND
\nFLUVANNA…WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR IN
\nTHE MRNG<\/a>\/MIDDAY HRS<\/a> WED. FOR RICHMOND METRO<\/a>…WITH HI<\/a> LO-LVL<\/a>
\nTHICKNESSES AND THE H85\/H5<\/a> LO PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA
\n(INSTEAD OF OFF TO THE SOUTH)…TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW MAY
\nBE DELAYED UNTIL THE AFTN<\/a> HRS<\/a>.<\/p>\n

CONCERNING HEADLINES…WINTER STORM WATCH<\/a> REMAINS ACRS<\/a> THE
\nPIEDMONT FROM FVX TO LOUISA AND A FEW COUNTIES EAST. WATCH<\/a> HAS NOT
\nBEEN EXPANDED SOUTH\/EAST…WITH THE RICHMOND AREA MORE LIKELY<\/a> TO
\nRECEIVE ONLY 1-2 INCHES. HAVE ADDED DORCHESTER COUNTY TO THE
\nWATCH<\/a> WITH THIS PACKAGE WHERE 3-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.<\/p>\n

PRECIP DOES COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT INTO
\nTHURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY WRAP-AROUND BAND
\nOF SNOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.<\/p>\n

AS FAR AS TEMPS…HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S NW TO UPR<\/a> 40S
\nSERN COASTAL AREAS. THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR<\/a> 40S. LOW
\nTEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

March 4, 2013: Updates<\/p>\n

New images and discussion regarding the storm from the NWS:<\/p>\n

.SHORT TERM \/TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT\/…
\nFOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA…GENLY
\nFOLLOWING A SOLUTION BLENDING THE 04\/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM<\/a>\/ECMWF<\/a>\/GFS<\/a>.
\nOVERALL THINGS HAVE NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH…THE GFS<\/a> STILL IS A
\nFASTER AND FARTHER NORTH SFC<\/a> LOW TRACK SOLUTION TENDING TO BE ON
\nTHE NORTH EDGE OF ALL GUIDANCE. IT WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN IMPACT
\nFOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
\nCWA<\/a>. THE 00Z NAM<\/a> SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
\nACCUMULATION OVER CENTRAL AND EVEN SOUTHERN VA. NOTE…LATEST 06Z
\nNAM<\/a> HAS TRENDED NORTH TO THE GFS<\/a>…ALTHOUGH DO NOT GENLY FAVOR THE
\n06\/18Z MODEL RUNS.<\/p>\n

WHAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS W\/
\nTHIS UPCOMING EVENT: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ABOUT 5 STD
\nDEVIATION ANOMALIES WITH RESPECT TO U COMPONENT OF 850 MB<\/a> WIND
\n(I.E. STRONG\/ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS). ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION
\nHAS VARIED (GENLY BEING LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID ATLC REGION OR
\nFAR SOUTHERN NJ\/PA). THIS TENDS TO BE A STRONG INDICATOR OF A
\nSIGNIFICANT EVENT ACRS<\/a> AKQ CWA<\/a>. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE VERY
\nIMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURRING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
\nLOW TRACK…AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDING OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
\nWILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE NARROW BAND OF STRONGEST FORCING AND
\nANY DEVIATION IN THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND WILL DRASTICALLY CHANGE
\nWHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS. FOR NOW…AND THIS
\nHAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT…THIS APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER NRN 1\/2
\nTO 1\/3 OF THE CWA<\/a>. THE LAST FACTOR…WHICH COULD BE INHIBITING AT
\nLEAST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE WARM BOUNDARY
\nLAYER…AND FACT THAT ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR NW
\nWILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF RAIN TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE
\nCHANGEOVER. STILL..THINK DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN COOLING DUE TO INTENSE
\nLIFT AND PRECIP RATES WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARMTH AT THE
\nSFC<\/a>. WHEN THIS OCCURS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR
\nTHE PRECIP TO REMAIN FROZEN…AND WITH THE STRONG FORCING AND
\nHEAVY PRECIP RATES…SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE VERY QUICKLY.<\/p>\n

CONCERNING HEADLINES…HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH<\/a>ACRS<\/a> THE
\nPIEDMONT FROM FVX TO LOUISA AND A FEW COUNTIES EAST. THIS IS DUE
\nTO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BEGIN WITHIN 48HRS…PRIOR
\nTO 12Z\/WED. FARTHER EAST…THE CHANGEOVER\/OR AT LEAST TIME WHEN
\nSNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE IS GENLY EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. THIS IS THE
\nREASON FOR NO WATCH<\/a> AT THIS TIME IN THESE AREAS (LATER SHIFTS WILL
\nNEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS). FCST<\/a> GENLY HAS
\nSNOW BECOMING MAIN P-TYPE ACRS<\/a> MUCH OF METRO<\/a> RICHMOND SOMETIME
\nBETWEEN 12-18Z\/WED…ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND WOULD NOT BE
\nSURPRISED TO SEE SHARP CUTOFF<\/a> WITHIN THE METRO<\/a> AREA ITSELF. EXPECT
\nA SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL\/SEVERAL INCHES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
\nPOSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL VA AND INTO DORCHESTER MD SOMETIME LATER
\nWED-WED EVENING.<\/p>\n

THE KEY POINT OF THIS EVENT IS THAT THIS STORM WILL CREATE A
\nHIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE LACK OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
\nCOULD BE OVERCOME BY COOLING FROM ALOFT WITH A PERIOD OF VERY
\nHEAVY SNOW<\/a> RESULTING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST AND
\nNORTH OF A FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-SALISBURY LINE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
\nBEEN SOME MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY…THIS WX<\/a> SCENARIO IS
\nHIGHLY VARIABLE AND PINPOINTING SPECIFICS IN
\nTIMING\/LOCATION\/AMOUNTS IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.<\/p>\n

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