An upper level low riding along a stalled front to the south of Virginia could bring significant snowfall to all of Central Virginia tomorrow night. Hints at the potential for a winter storm were noted earlier in the week in some of the major weather models. Model disagreements were based on the timing of the cold air arrival and how much moisture would overspread into Central Virginia. Both NAM and GFS point to the possibility of significant snowfall amounts for tomorrow night. Current thoughts from Wakefield include:<\/p>\n

.SHORT TERM \/6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY\/…
\nSTRONG MID\/UPPER LOW WILL LOCATE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY
\nMORNING AS THE SFC<\/a> LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
\nRAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO SRN<\/a> VA IN AREA OF
\nISENTROPIC LIFT<\/a>\/DIVERGENCE<\/a> ALOFT. STRONG DYNAMICS<\/a> AND ABUNDANT
\nMOISTURE<\/a> WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW\/PV ANOMALY<\/a> AS IT LIFTS OUT
\nOF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
\nPRECIP WATERS WILL BE NEARLY ONE INCH WITH HIGH RH<\/a> VALUES IN THE
\nIMPORTANT DGZ. SHARP HEIGHT<\/a> FALLS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
\nFRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT THE SFC<\/a> THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 200+ KT<\/a>
\nJET<\/a> EXISTS ACROSS THE NE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
\nRAIN…POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES…OVER MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
\nACROSS THE ENTIRE FA<\/a>. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC
\nFORCING\/DIVERGENCE<\/a> ALOFT WILL LOCATE OVER THE WRN AND NRN
\nFA<\/a>…WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF<\/a> AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.<\/p>\n

THE UPPER LEVEL<\/a> SHORTWAVE<\/a> WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH<\/a>
\nTHURSDAY EVENING AS COLD SFC<\/a> HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD<\/a> FROM THE
\nGREAT PLAINS. AS THE SFC<\/a> LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE FA<\/a> THURSDAY
\nEVENING\/OVERNIGHT…COLD AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY
\nALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP. COLD AIR WORKING INTO THIS
\nDYNAMIC OF A SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
\nLATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON…FIRST ACROSS THE NW. HAVE GONE UNDER
\nMODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON THE ANTECEDENT
\nRAINFALL<\/a>\/MILD WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM.
\nHOWEVER…STRONG UVM<\/a> IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR LARGER FLAKES AND
\nHEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THIS WILL HELP SNOW ACCUMULATE REGARDLESS
\nOF THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER THING TO OVERCOME IS LOW
\nLEVEL TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING…TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
\nHAVE GONE UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS TOMORROW EVENING AS PRECIP
\nFALLING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP COOL THE LOW LEVELS. AS
\nTHE LOW PUSHES OUT OVER THE WATERS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS
\nNE…COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SW ALLOWING RAIN TO
\nCHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY
\nNIGHT\/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS DRY\/COLD W\/NW FLOW<\/a> WORKS INTO THE
\nREGION…PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT\/EARLY
\nFRIDAY MORNING…UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
\nDONE…SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4 TO 5 INCHES IN
\nTHE NW TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS SE VA\/NE NC<\/a>. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
\nCOAST WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LITTLE…IF ANY…SNOWFALL
\nACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WARNING<\/a> CRITERIA BEING MET<\/a>
\n(SREF PROBABILITIES OF >4 INCHES EXCEEDS 50 PCT)…HAVE OPTED TO
\nISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WATCH<\/a> AS OPPOSED TO A WINTER WEATHER
\nADVISORY. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IN THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM
\nIS PRECIP BANDING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY
\nNEGATIVE SAT<\/a> GEO POT VORT INDICATE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
\nSOMETHING TO WATCH<\/a>. BANDING WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
\nAMOUNTS. GRASSY SURFACES WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL WITH SOME
\nACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. TOTAL QPF<\/a> AMOUNTS WILL
\nRANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF…WHICH ON ALREADY
\nSATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. A FLOOD<\/a>
\nWATCH<\/a> MAY BE NEEDED.<\/p>\n

STRONG CAA<\/a> ON FRIDAY (850 TEMPS FALL TO -7 TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL
\nTHICKNESSES FALL OVER 20 M) AND AN EXISTING SNOW PACK<\/a> WILL PREVENT
\nTEMPS FROM REACHING 40 ANY MANY LOCALES. WHILE SKIES WILL FINALLY
\nCLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS…NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
\n15 MPH…STRONGER NEAR THE COAST…WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.<\/p>\n

Some other images of the possible storm:<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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