![\"\"](\"https:\/\/richmondcitywatch.com\/rvawx_test\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/tornado_prob.jpg\" "\\"tornado_prob\\"")
<\/a><\/a>\u00a0MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
\n\u00a0\u00a0 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
\n\u00a0\u00a0 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 AREAS AFFECTED…NC…VA…WV…MD…DC…PA
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 VALID 011703Z – 011830Z
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN A
\n\u00a0\u00a0 VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NC NWD ACROSS
\n\u00a0\u00a0 VA…SRN PA…WV PNHDL…AND MD\/DC AREA. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRST POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
\n\u00a0\u00a0 IN THE FORM OF HAIL\/WIND OVER PARTS OF NERN NC AND SERN VA WHERE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT SHEAR AND FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED
\n\u00a0\u00a0 FOR A TIME. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS A FORCED SQUALL
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
\n\u00a0\u00a0 SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
\n\u00a0\u00a0 FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 DISCUSSION…STRONG FORCED ASCENT WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS
\n\u00a0\u00a0 LIKELY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG A
\n\u00a0\u00a0 COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM ERN OH SWD ACROSS WV…EXTREME SWRN VA
\n\u00a0\u00a0 AND ERN TN. EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE SPINE OF THE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO
\n\u00a0\u00a0 INTERACT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS…MORE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FORM OF BOWING\/LEWPING SEGMENTS
\n\u00a0\u00a0 CAN BE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY ALSO TAKE FORM WITH TIME
\n\u00a0\u00a0 COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. IN ADDITION TO WIND
\n\u00a0\u00a0 DAMAGE THREAT WITH STORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT…AN ENHANCED
\n\u00a0\u00a0 BUT FOCUSED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM
\n\u00a0\u00a0 FRONT. ONE TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM SRN PA ACROSS
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
\n\u00a0\u00a0
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ONGOING STORMS OVER NRN
\n\u00a0\u00a0 NC NWD ACROSS THE VA TIDEWATER AREA. STORMS IN THIS AREA ARE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 DEVELOPING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND PERHAPS THE LARGER SCALE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 ASCENT DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS GREATER
\n\u00a0\u00a0 IN THIS CORRIDOR…DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING ARE LIKELY MORE MARGINAL
\n\u00a0\u00a0 TO SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS
\n\u00a0\u00a0 WIND\/TORNADOES. NONETHELESS…SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE
\n\u00a0\u00a0 SUFFICIENTLY WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH
\n\u00a0\u00a0 AND THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Storm threat looms for the evening hours over the mid-atlantic: \u00a0 \u00a0MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 \u00a0\u00a0 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK \u00a0\u00a0 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 AREAS AFFECTED…NC…VA…WV…MD…DC…PA \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 VALID 011703Z – 011830Z \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS … Continue reading June 1, 2012: Forecast & Observations<\/span>